Kalmar Q3'24 flash comment: Looking good

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/1/2024 at 9:50 am EET

Kalmar's Q3 figures were in line with or better than our expectations across the board. In particular, margins were strong and the profitability guidance for 2024 was raised. An initial positive share price reaction to the report is justified.

Overall good Q3 figures

Kalmar's Q3 orders (416 MEUR; +6% y/y) were in line with our forecast (414 MEUR) and clearly better than the consensus (384 MEUR; -2% y/y). Growth was steady in both equipment (+7% y/y) and services (+5% y/y). Services accounted for 32% of orders. The Group’s Q3 revenue was in line with our forecast and slightly above the consensus. Adjusted Q3 profitability (margin 13.5%) was well above the forecasts and a positive surprise. There were no major deviations from expectations in items affecting comparability or financial items, and the adjusted EPS ended up nicely above the forecasts.

2024 guidance raised

Kalmar raised its 2024 guidance and now expects its comparable EBIT margin for the full year 2024 to be >12% (cf. >11%). In forecasts preceding this report, our expectation for the full-year adjusted EBIT margin was 11.7% and the consensus was 12.3%.  In its market comments, Kalmar stated that 'overall demand has remained stable despite some prolonged softness in the North American market' and that 'our sales pipeline remains healthy, and while quarterly order intake can fluctuate depending on the timing of customer decision making, we are confident in our ability to meet our long-term goals'.

Positive first reaction expected

With figures that exceed the consensus and especially strong profitability, as well as the raised 2024 guidance, a positive share price reaction is justified.