Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/30/2026 at 7:20 am EET.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus: 7 analysts)

Kempower will report its Q3 earnings on Wednesday, November 4, at around 8:30 pm EET. We forecast a 8% year-on-year decrease in Q3 order intake as charge point operators postponed their investments, despite strong electric vehicle sales growth. We expect revenue to have remained at the level of the comparison period and adjusted EBIT to be around zero.

Charge point operators have held back on investments

We expect Kempower's order intake to have decreased to 69 MEUR in Q3, an 8% year-on-year decline. While electric vehicle sales in Europe grew by 42% from January to September, sales in the US decreased by 30% due to the expiration of the EV tax credit at the end of September 2025. Despite strong fleet electrification in the core European market, we assume that charge point operators have continued to postpone new orders. Charge point operators are now paying more attention to charger utilization rates and profitability rather than rapid network expansion. The rise in interest rates has likely also diminished the attractiveness of growth investments. However, strong electric car growth figures will likely drive investment back into growth within 1–2 years. Our Q3 order estimate is around 7% more pessimistic than the analyst consensus (consensus: 74 MEUR).

Growth delayed, profitability close to zero

We estimate revenue in Q3 to be at the level of the comparison period, 74 MEUR. Although the order book was stronger at the beginning of the quarter than in the comparison period (+18% y/y), we expect deliveries to be distributed over a longer period. Simultaneously, there was likely less short-term activity than in the comparison period due to weak market demand. We expect adjusted EBIT to be around zero (Q3'25: 0.2 MEUR; consensus: 0.7 MEUR). We forecast the gross margin to be at the level of the comparison period at 45.8% (consensus: 47.4%), though the margin in the comparison period was weighed down by component write-downs. In our view, the gross margin is being weighed down by price competition in the market amid soft demand. This is offset by the company’s production efficiency program, through which it aims to achieve efficiency gains of more than 10 MEUR (approximately 4 MEUR were already achieved in H1). As far as we can tell, the 5 MEUR fixed-cost efficiency program announced in connection with the Q2 report will not yet support profitability during Q3.

We don't expect a turnaround in orders until next year

Kempower guides for 10–25% revenue growth and a significant improvement in adjusted EBIT for 2026. Our own forecast calls for approximately 19% (consensus: 16%) revenue growth in 2026, as well as a slight return to profitability in adjusted EBIT due to cost structure scaling and efficiency improvements. Following H1, achieving the revenue guidance requires year-on-year revenue growth ranging from -3% to +23% in H2.

We see a risk that the analyst consensus for revenue growth in 2027 will decrease due to weak order intake in Q3'26 (consensus estimates 2027 revenue to grow by 18%, while we estimate 2%). We forecast orders to grow again in 2027, but this growth will be concentrated towards the end of the year, delaying revenue growth towards 2028. We forecast 2027 order growth of 20% to 353 MEUR (consensus: 354 MEUR). A key question to monitor is when the rapidly growing electric vehicle fleet, particularly in Europe, will prompt charge point operators to resume investing in capacity expansion. Additionally, the gross margin will be of particular interest, as usual, as it indicates the development of the company's long-term profitability and competitiveness (the negative impact of price competition vs. the ability to streamline production).