Kempower Q4'25 preview: Revenue stable due to timing, order growth should continue

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/04/2026 at 07:45 am EET

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus: 6 analysts)

Kempower publishes its financial statements release for 2025 on Wednesday, February 11, 2.2026. Revenue and earnings are expected to remain close to the comparison period's level due to delivery timing. As usual, the key aspects of the report are the number of new orders (we expect strong growth of 21%) and management's outlook for this year.

Timing factors keep Q4 revenue and earnings growth moderate

We forecast Kempower's Q4 revenue to be 73.4 MEUR, an increase of 2% year-on-year. The growth rate has slowed significantly from Q3 (41% y-o-y), partly due to the timing of order deliveries shifting to 2026 and a more challenging comparison period in Q4 than in previous quarters. For the full year 2025, the company has guided for revenue growth of 10-15%, and our estimate of 252.8 MEUR (13% growth) falls in the middle of this range. 

We expect the operating result (adj. EBIT) to be 2.1 MEUR in Q4, showing a slight increase from the comparison period (Q4’24: 0.8 MEUR). We expect the cost structure to be relatively stable year on year. We estimate the full-year 2025 operational EBIT to be -6.7 MEUR, which is a significant improvement from 2024 (-26.4 MEUR) in line with the company's guidance. Consensus expectations are in line with our estimates.

We do not expect the company to pay a dividend due to, e.g., negative earnings and a growth-oriented strategy. Our forecast of net cash assets at the end of the year is 15 MEUR.

Significant order growth expected

Kempower's orders grew by as much as 38% in January-September y-o-y. We expect order growth to have remained strong in Q4, but relatively lower (+21%) due to, e.g., more challenging comparison figures. We estimate that the target market has continued to grow. Based on first registrations in the EU, the electrification of transport appears to be accelerating, which can be explained, e.g., by the stricter emission limits for new cars that came into force at the beginning of 2025. In our view, the news stream related to Kempower’s customer deliveries has continued as positive, but it is practically impossible to deduce the overall picture of the order development in euros from the news. In addition to the growth in the passenger car segment, we believe that heavy transport is also becoming an increasingly significant market driver. Kempower has achieved important references in the heavy transport segment, such as the record-breaking charging depot charger deliveries for EV Realty in California, USA. 

Share of EVs in first registrations in the EU

Source: ACEA

Outlook and strategy update for 2026 in focus

In addition to order growth, the most important takeaway from the report relates to the 2026 outlook and guidance. We currently expect revenue growth to accelerate to as much as 31% in 2026, supported by a strong order backlog and successful new customer acquisition. We forecast the EBIT margin to strengthen to a positive just under 7%(2025e: -3%). Consensus growth estimates for 2026 are even more demanding (revenue growth: 36%), but earnings forecasts are mainly aligned with our figures.

The CMD in late spring will provide new guidelines

Kempower will also host a CMD in Q2, where the company will likely update its new financial targets. The current targets are very high, particularly regarding revenue growth, and we believe that the growth targets may need to be postponed or reduced in light of the charger market's development in recent years. Nevertheless, we anticipate favorable prospects for the company to enhance its profitability and results in the coming years, as new customer acquisition is yielding results in various geographical regions. The company has ample unused production capacity, which should enable good scalability in profitability as growth progresses. We expect the company to focus more on software and services in its future strategy, which could balance the hardware sales-dominated revenue in the long term.