Koskisen Q1'26 preview: Weak construction cycle continues to cause headaches

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance 3 forecasts (consensus)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 5/12/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.

Koskisen will publish its Q1 report on Friday, May 15, at 10:00 am, and the results webcast can be followed here. Our and consensus expectations are for a slightly weaker result than the strong comparison period, despite the inorganic growth from the Iisveden Metsä acquisition. Koskinen reiterated its broad guidance. The company's market situation has remained challenging, particularly due to the prolonged downturn in construction, and the potential macroeconomic repercussions of the war in Iran have further increased uncertainty regarding recovery expectations in the construction sector. In our view, Koskisen's stock is approximately correctly priced on a 12-month horizon (2026e: P/E 14x, EV/EBITDA 7x, P/B 1.2x).

Iisveden Metsä acquisition and volumes in Panel Industry have supported revenue growth in Q1

We forecast Koskisen's revenue to have grown by 12% in Q1 to 97 MEUR. Our estimate is in line with the consensus. In the Sawn Timber Industry, growth has been supported by the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä, completed in June 2025, but cold weather, technical challenges at the Järvelä sawmill, probably slightly lower sawn timber sales prices than in the comparison period, and a decrease in energy wood fraction prices have limited the organic growth rate in Q1. Correspondingly, we estimate the Panel Industry's revenue to have grown at a double-digit rate from a weak comparison period, driven by increased birch plywood deliveries due to moderate demand in the logistics sector and Kore's growth. In contrast, the Panel Industry's chipboard segment has continued to suffer from the weak Finnish construction market.

We estimate that profitability has weakened, driven especially by Sawn Timber Industry

We expect Koskisen's adjusted EBITDA to have decreased by 7% in Q1 to 8.7 MEUR. Our operating result forecast is also very close to the consensus. We expect the drop in earnings to come especially from the Sawn Timber Industry, where we estimate the company fell short of good comparison figures due to factors hindering organic revenue development and increased logistics costs. In the Panel Industry, we expect the EBITDA to have improved quite clearly, supported by good demand for birch plywood and stable selling prices. A slight decrease in wood costs should also reduce the expenses of both units somewhat, but conversely, logistics costs have been under upward pressure already in Q1 due to the war in Iran. On the lower lines, we forecast the company's reported EPS to have decreased quite clearly to EUR 0.13, reflecting the operational development and increased depreciation, while our forecasts for financing costs and taxes are at the company's normalized levels. Cash flow-wise, Q1 is also typically weak for Koskisen due to seasonal reasons.

Market outlook, especially for construction sector, remains cloudy due to potential macro-level repercussions of Iran war

We believe Koskisen will reiterate its rather broad guidance for 2026, which indicates revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8–12%. However, in our view, the market situation has become more uncertain during the beginning of the year with the outbreak of the Iran war, as the potential macro implications of the war (declining consumer confidence, inflation, and rising market interest rates) again threaten to postpone the recovery of the construction sector in particular. Although the efficiency benefits of Koskisen's investments are gradually materializing, rapid earnings growth would require an improvement in market conditions, especially in the construction and logistics sectors. Thus, in addition to the figures and guidance, the company's comments on the operating environments of both businesses are key in the report.