Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/12/2026 at 9:25 am EET.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus)

Koskisen released its seasonally quiet Q3 earnings report this morning. While the company's Q3 figures were better than we had feared, they still fell short of consensus expectations quite clearly. As expected, the company reiterated its loose guidance for this year, and its comments on the market clearly reflected the rather broadly challenging operating environment. According to our estimate, the report will put downward pressure on the consensus earnings estimates for the near term, at least.

Growth continued at a slightly faster pace than we had estimated

Koskisen's revenue growth continued for the 11th consecutive quarter in Q3. Revenue climbed 8% to 90.7 MEUR, slightly exceeding our estimate. Revenue increased in both units. Growth in the Sawn Timber Industry exceeded our forecast thanks to higher volumes than we had expected, but the Panel Industry fell slightly short of our expectations for the same reasons. Consequently, average prices have likely developed more weakly than we estimated in the Sawn Timber Industry and more strongly in the Panel Industry. Overall, the demand for wood products remained subdued in Q3 due to the ongoing slowdown in residential construction, thereby making it more challenging to pass on cost pressures to final product prices.

Earnings trends across segments were in line with our expectations

Koskisen's adjusted EBITDA in Q3 came in at approximately the same level as in the comparison period, at 2.9 MEUR, exceeding the lowered forecast we had provided in our preview. However, the actual outcome was clearly lower than consensus estimates. In terms of earnings, segment development diverged roughly as we had anticipated. The Panel Industry surpassed its low comparison level due to stronger operational performance and slight price increases for birch plywood, while falling prices and inflation eroded the Sawn Timber Industry's profitability. Despite the very challenging operating environment, the Sawn Timber Industry achieved an adjusted EBITDA of 1.0 MEUR, which exceeded our zero forecast. In the Panel Industry, improvement was correspondingly slower than we estimated due to a lack of volume growth. On the lower end, the company recorded minor one-time expenses for Q3, with no surprises in depreciation, financing costs, or taxes. Consequently, the company's reported EPS was negative EUR 0.07 for the seasonally weakest quarter of the year, similar to the comparison period. From a cash flow perspective, the report was better due to the release of working capital (receivables and trade payables), and Koskisen thus managed to patch up its weak cash flow from the beginning of the year quite well in Q3, given the circumstances.

No rapid turnaround in demand is in sight, consistent with our expectations  

In the report, as expected, Koskisen reiterated its guidance, according to which the company's 2026 revenue is expected to grow from the 2025 level and the adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be below the full-year 2025 level of 8.1%. Based on the comments, the market situation remains difficult, with elevated risks, as inflation and rising market interest rates have postponed recovery expectations for the construction sector, and even the company acknowledges that a rapid recovery in demand is unlikely. Naturally, weak demand makes pricing more difficult as well. In Finland, the price of logs is high. On a positive note, forest energy deliveries started earlier than anticipated, and the company describes its market outlook as somewhat better than last autumn. In addition, the company is focusing on its own efficiency measures to strengthen its competitiveness (cf. launching change negotiations this week).

While there were no real surprises in the comments, we believe they underscore the ongoing challenges of the operating environment, particularly for the Sawn Timber Industry and the chipboard segment. Considering this overall situation, we believe that, at the very least, the consensus forecasts for the near term are subject to downward pressure since they already factored in a fairly rapid and sharp turnaround in earnings before the report was released.