Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/10/2025 at 7:46 am EEST.

Koskisen held a call with analysts yesterday ahead of the Q2 silent period and published the main themes of the Q&A in a press release. According to the company, developments in the business environment were broadly stable after adjusting for normal seasonal fluctuations, and the discussion revealed no significant surprises relative to the company's expectations.

Stable overall picture compared with previous quarter

In our view, the tone of the company's messages showed no major surprises compared to the Q1 report and the comments made in connection with it. Demand and pricing conditions, as well as costs, appeared to be at the expected levels for both businesses.

In the Sawn Timber Industry, demand had picked up slightly toward summer, demonstrating the usual seasonality, but was still somewhat more moderate than expected. Sawn timber prices also seem to have continued their slight upward trend. In the birch plywood business of the Panel Industry, the price level of birch logs appears to have begun declining moderately towards the end of the quarter. On a somewhat positive note, there were no layoffs or unplanned shutdowns during Q2. The integration of Iisveden Metsä appears to be progressing as planned and is expected to be completed during the fall. Koskisen expects to achieve synergy benefits in particular by optimizing production and centralizing wood procurement.

At least in our preliminary assessment, there is no significant change pressures on our Koskisen Q2 forecasts. We estimate Koskisen’s revenue to increase to 91 MEUR in Q2 and the adjusted EBITA to 11.4 MEUR. Our estimates are slightly above consensus. Koskisen will publish its Q2 report on Monday, August 18.

So far difficult to assess the impact of big issues on Koskisen's operating environment

Koskisen has no sales to the US, so the company is not directly affected by the recent tariff decisions. However, we believe that tariffs could still disrupt global lumber flows, and both positive and negative scenarios can be drawn for Koskisen. Nonetheless, trade in sawn timber in the markets relevant to Koskisen has been affected by the situation in the Middle East, resulting in some deliveries being postponed. In addition, the uncertain market situation has been reflected in customer caution regarding inventory build-up and orders. On the other hand, if implemented, the German infrastructure and defense plan would essentially be a positive driver for Koskisen because Germany and Central Europe are important markets for the company. Thus, growing economic activity in the region would also be reflected in the demand for wood products. However, it is still quite impossible to assess the combined effects of multiple drivers and scenarios, some in different directions, and the associated probabilities.