Translation: Original published in Finnish on 12/20/2024 at 8:33 am EET.

Source: Svensk Handel *Inderes’ estimate

As usual, preliminary Swedish clothing market data for December was released this morning. December sales up to the 16th were up 7%. The period is quite short, so it can be affected by various random factors. One of these is Black Friday online sales, which in some cases are recorded as revenue in December. In fact, growth in early December was entirely driven by strong online sales growth. Due to minor changes made earlier in the year, the cumulative figure for the year was not published, but we estimate it to be around 1%.

Sweden accounts for more than half of the Lindex chain’s sales

Sweden is Lindex's largest market and accounts for more than half of the sales of the Lindex chain (but not the whole group which is also called Lindex). Our forecast for the Lindex segment's revenue in Q4'24 is around 2% growth in local currencies, compared to 1% growth in the Swedish market in October-November. With growth in early December, Q4 currently looks to be roughly in line with our expectations. Lindex underperformed the market somewhat in Q3 due to logistics issues. Although, as far as we know, these issues should not affect Q4 significantly, they could still have a small negative impact. Against this backdrop, market development has been slightly weaker than we had forecast. The development of SEK and NOK, which together account for around 70% of the Lindex segment’s sales, also affects the company’s figures. The FX impact this year is much lower than in previous years and is not significant in our Q4'24 forecasts (-1%). Our forecast for the Lindex Group expects the full-year result to remain at 68 MEUR, which is below the company's guidance of 70-80 MEUR. So December sales play an important role in the guidance.

Logistics center on time and on budget

Lindex announced yesterday that the Lindex division's new logistics center was inaugurated in November and will be phased in over the next year. The investment has progressed within the original budget (110 MEUR) and the company reiterated its estimate that the new center will generate annual savings of 10 MEUR from 2026. The savings are at the EBITDA level, and the large investment will increase depreciation, so the impact on EBIT will be smaller. However, the impact on cash flow is significant once a large investment has been made and the company is able to reap the benefits. In addition to the efficiency benefits, the new center will enable continued growth, particularly in e-commerce, as Lindex expands its online activities, including third-party platforms.