Source: Inderes, Vara Research (consensus)

 Translation: Original published in Finnish on 5/5/2026 at 8:24 am EEST.

Mandatum will publish its Q1 report on Friday, May 8. We exceptionally expect Mandatum's earnings to have fallen into the red, which is, however, purely explained by a change in accounting methods. We estimate that operational development continued on track and that the result of the wealth management business, which is the most important for the group's value, grew significantly from the comparison period. In the report, our attention is especially on the outlook for new sales, as the steps for the coming years regarding the balance sheet and profit distribution are very clear after the updated strategy and sales of PE investments. We will go through Mandatum's earnings in a live broadcast in the morning starting at 08:25 am EEST on inderesTV (in Finnish).

New sales are Mandatum's main value driver

We have significantly lowered our Q1 net finance result estimate for Mandatum. This is primarily due to the company's announced change in accounting policy, but even with this adjustment, we expect a weaker-than-average quarter for investment income.

Mandatum's investment story is based on asset management growth and strong profit distribution. Profit distribution largely results from the gradual sale of the company's investment assets, which simultaneously damages the group's earnings development. However, with strong sales continuing in asset management, Mandatum has the potential to turn its result around already in the coming years, and the growth rate of assets under management plays a key role in this. Although there is quarterly fluctuation, new sales development is the most important single indicator in Mandatum's earnings report, as it best reflects the development of the competitiveness of the company's asset management product and service offerings. We consider the overall growth outlook for the asset management market to be favorable, even in a longer-term view, so high-quality operators have the potential to achieve even strong growth figures.

We expect earnings growth in asset management to have remained strong

We expect Mandatum's Q1 fee income to have grown clearly year-on-year to 23.2 MEUR (Q3’25: 18.8 MEUR). Fee income development is supported in our estimates by increased assets under management and improved cost efficiency. We expect strong growth in new sales for asset management, and our Q1 net subscription estimate is 240 MEUR. The company has announced the closing of its new fixed-income fund (MAMCO II) at over 300 MEUR, but we expect this to increase AUM over the year as investment activities progress.

Our forecast for client assets under management at the end of Q1 is 15.4 BEUR, representing a modest 1% growth from the previous quarter. Thus, we expect negative market value changes to partially offset the impact of new sales. We note that the capital market has performed positively in April, recovering some of the ground lost in March.

Interest rate movements and an accounting change are weighing on net finance result

The result of term life insurance mainly consists of the contractual service margin (CSM). The CSM amount to be earned is affected by actual claims experience, which fluctuates somewhat from quarter to quarter. We expect the result related to risk policies to be 3.5 MEUR in Q1, which is broadly in line with our estimate of a normal level.

Our net finance result forecast is -24 MEUR. The interest rate movements observed during the quarter and the change in accounting treatment are expected to significantly impact the return on investments on the company's own balance sheet.

Due to the low net finance result, we also expect Mandatum's Q1 earnings to have turned slightly negative. We estimate the Group's Q1 profit before taxes to have been -4.5 MEUR and EPS to have been -0.01 euros per share. However, we estimate that operational development has continued its steadily strong progress.

Saxo divestment strengthens the balance sheet

In addition to the reported figures, as usual, we focus on management's comments on the sales outlook for investment products. Commentary is likely to remain largely optimistic, as demand for European bond funds has remained strong, and rising market interest rates only enhance the attractiveness of these products. In addition, comments from peers regarding the general outlook for new sales have been largely positive, despite the increased uncertainty stemming from new geopolitical tensions. Mandatum's guidance, on the other hand, is likely to remain low in informational value, as we expect the company to project growing fee income and a shrinking with-profit portfolio.

We expect Mandatum's solvency (Solvency II ratio) to have been clearly above the company's target level, as the sale of Saxo Bank shares was completed in March.