Mandatum Q2'25 preview: One-off from share sales supports earnings

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/12/2025 at 7:27 am EEST.

Mandatum will report its Q2 earnings on Thursday at 08:30 am (EEST). We expect sales of investment products to have continued their positive momentum, albeit more moderately than in the excellent previous quarters. We expect a stronger-than-usual quarter for net finance result, which is explained by the earnings impact of the sale of Enento shares. On the earnings day, our attention is especially on the outlook for new sales, as the steps for the coming years regarding the balance sheet and profit distribution are very clear after the updated strategy and sales of PE investments. Therefore, new sales are the stock's key driver now and in the future. We will go through Mandatum's earnings in a live broadcast in the morning starting at 08:25 am on inderesTV (in Finnish).

Source: Inderes, Vara Research (consensus)

We added the one-off gain on the stock sale to the forecasts

We have raised our earnings forecasts to account for Q2 capital market movements and the sales gain from Enento shares. These raised our forecast for the current year's profit before tax by approximately 6%. In addition, we made a slight downward revision to our Q2 fee income estimate due to market value fluctuations seen during the quarter and the weakening of the dollar. However, the significance of this to the full-year figures remained very modest.

Fee income keeps growing

We expect Mandatum's Q2 fee income to have grown significantly year-on-year to 18.5 MEUR. Fee income development is supported by increased assets under management and improved cost efficiency. As for sales, it will be interesting to see if the company has been able to continue its strong international sales as in previous quarters. Our own forecasts are more modest than the exceptionally strong previous quarters, so in these respects, a fairly typical quarter is expected. As for products, the focus is likely still on fixed rate funds. Our forecast for assets under management at the end of Q2 is 14.3 BNEUR (Q1’25: 14.0 BNEUR).

In addition to the financial figures, as usual, we focus on management's comments on the sales outlook for investment products. The commentary is likely to remain largely optimistic, as there have recently been slight signs of increased investor risk appetite.

Significant one-off proceeds from the sale of Enento shares

The result of term life insurance mainly consists of the contractual service margin (CSM). The CSM amount to be earned is affected by actual claims experience, which fluctuates somewhat from quarter to quarter. We expect the result related to risk policies to be 3.6 MEUR in Q2, which is broadly in line with our estimate of a normal level. During the comparison period, the result of risk life insurance was boosted by a one-off gain, which was recorded from the transfer of the portfolio to If P&C.

Our net finance result forecast is 40.1 MEUR. The interest rate movements observed during the quarter should moderately support the result of the with-profit portfolio. Additionally, the sale of the Enento shareholding announced during the quarter has a positive earnings impact of around 12 MEUR in Q2. For Q2, we expect the Group's profit before taxes to be 55.2 MEUR and earnings per share to be EUR 0.09.