Translation: Original published in Finnish on 08/13/2026 at 09:33 am EEST

Source: Inderes, Vara Research (consensus)

Mandatum published clearly better Q2 earnings than we expected. However, the earnings beat was explained by net financial income, which fluctuates with the capital markets. New sales in wealth management, the most important variable for Mandatum's value, fell short of our estimates. However, due to strong investment commitments and steadily progressing internationalization, we do not consider this worrisome for shareholders, as new sales have been at a rather satisfactory level. On the morning of the earnings release, Mandatum also announced an acquisition, as it is set to acquire a majority stake in the Swedish asset manager Cliens.

AUM grew strongly even though sales fell short of expectations

The development of capital-light businesses was quite as expected. The fee result rose in line with our estimate to 22.4 MEUR, representing a robust 21% growth year-on-year. Earnings growth was driven by both an increase in assets under management and improved cost efficiency. 

Mandatum's assets under management (AUM) developed more favorably than we anticipated, growing by 8% from the previous quarter to 16.7 BEUR (forecast 16.2 BEUR). However, this was thanks to market momentum, as net subscriptions were more moderate than our estimate (164 MEUR vs. 290 MEUR forecast). Sales performance was not weak, but it was below the company's average development in recent years. However, it is good to remember that sales naturally fluctuate quarterly, and Mandatum also has 400 MEUR worth of investment commitments in its fixed income funds. These are not yet reflected in sales figures, as capital is only reported as it is called into use. Thus, we are not concerned about weakening demand, although we will listen carefully to management's comments on the matter. The company stated in the report that international sales, particularly from Sweden, accounted for the majority of the quarter's new sales. In addition, Mandatum commented that it had gained its first customers in Italy, so the company's targeted international expansion is progressing quite well.

Net finance result clearly exceeded estimates

The net finance result, on the other hand, clearly exceeded our estimate. This was driven by investment income, which benefited more than we estimated from lower interest rates, narrower credit risk margins, and well-performing equity markets. However, the net finance result fluctuates quarterly with market developments, so the forecast deviation is not significant. Term life insurance results were also better than expected.

Mainly due to the net finance result, Mandatum's profit before taxes was also clearly higher than our expectations at 79.1 MEUR. Earnings per share were EUR 0.13 for the quarter. Organic capital generation (EUR 0.10) exceeded EPS, as usual. Organic capital generation is a key figure published by the company that reflects growth in distributable wealth.

A stable balance sheet supports the outlook for profit distribution

Mandatum's Solvency II ratio was 195%. Thus, solvency is above Mandatum's target level after the company divested its ownership in Saxo Bank earlier this year. Although solvency is well above the company's target level (160-180%), we do not expect the company to unwind its balance sheet with an extra profit distribution during the year; instead, profit distribution occurs annually in connection with the financial statements.

Meanwhile, the outlook for the current year is fully in line with expectations, as Mandatum estimates that its fee result will increase from the previous year and that its with-profit portfolio will continue to decrease further. However, the informative value of this is minimal, as we consider both to be almost certain.

Active on the M&A front

Mandatum announced on its earnings morning that it would acquire a majority stake in the Swedish asset manager Cliens Kapitalförvaltning AB. The purchase price is around 64 MEUR, and the arrangement will increase Mandatum's AUM by some 3.3 BEUR (+20%), so this is not a small transaction. Cliens strengthens Mandatum's foothold in Sweden and in equity funds, where the company's own offering is limited. We will comment on the transaction in more detail in a separate comment during the day, but our initial view is that the terms of the arrangement are quite reasonable.