Translation: Original published in Finnish on 08/11/2026 at 08:09 am EEST

Source: Inderes, Vara Research (consensus)

Mandatum will publish its Q2 report on Thursday, August 13. Overall, we expect a strong quarter driven by AUM growth and investment income. In the report, our attention is especially on the outlook for new sales, as the steps for the coming years regarding the balance sheet and profit distribution are very clear after the updated strategy and sales of PE investments.

Our Q2 estimate increased, supported by good market development

Ahead of the earnings day, we have raised our Q2 net finance result estimate following strong capital market developments. The revisions raised our full-year pre-tax profit estimate by approximately 7%. In addition, we estimate that favorable market development also significantly increased assets under management, so we slightly revised our estimate for AUM at the end of Q2 upwards.

Asset management growth remains strong

We expect Mandatum's Q2 fee income to have grown clearly year-on-year to 22.4 MEUR (Q2’25: 18.5 MEUR). Fee income development is supported in our estimates by increased assets under management and improved cost efficiency. Our estimate for client AUM at the end of Q2 is 16.2 BEUR, which would mean very strong growth of just over 5% from the previous quarter. Most of our estimated growth is a result of the strong capital market performance during the quarter.

We also expect strong growth in new sales for asset management, and our Q2 net subscription estimate is 290 MEUR. New sales development is the most important single indicator in Mandatum's earnings report, as it best reflects the development of the competitiveness of the company's asset management product and service offerings. We consider the overall growth outlook for the asset management market to be favorable, even in a longer-term view, so high-quality operators have the potential to achieve even strong growth figures.

We expect strong earnings driven by market momentum

The result of term life insurance mainly consists of the contractual service margin (CSM). The CSM amount to be earned is affected by actual claims experience, which fluctuates somewhat from quarter to quarter. We expect the result related to risk policies to be 3.7 MEUR in Q2, which is broadly in line with our estimate of a normal level. Our net finance result forecast is 41.2 MEUR. In our estimates, Q2 net financial income is supported by strong capital market performance in both equities and fixed income. We estimate the Group's Q1 profit before taxes to have been 60.7 MEUR and EPS to have been 0.10 euros per share.

The outlook remains positive

Next to asset management growth, Mandatum's investment story is based on strong profit distribution. Profit distribution largely results from the gradual sale of the company's investment assets, which continuously releases capital tied up in the balance sheet. We expect Mandatum's solvency (Solvency II ratio) to have remained clearly above the company's target level after the company divested its ownership in Saxo Bank earlier this year. Although solvency is well above the company's target level, we do not expect the company to unwind its balance sheet with an extra profit distribution during the year; instead, profit distribution occurs annually in connection with the financial statements.

In addition to the reported figures, as usual, we focus on management's comments on the sales outlook for investment products. Commentary is likely to remain largely optimistic, as demand for European bond funds has remained strong, and rising market interest rates only enhance the attractiveness of these products. In addition, comments from peers on the general outlook for new sales have been mostly positive, especially in the domestic wealth management market. Mandatum's guidance, on the other hand, is likely to remain low in informational value, as we expect the company to project growing fee income and a shrinking with-profit portfolio.