No big surprises in content of Koskisen's pre-silent call

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/8/2025 at 7:53 am EEST.

Koskisen held a call with analysts yesterday ahead of the Q1 silent period. Koskisen published the key themes of the questions and answers in a press release yesterday, which can be read here. The content of the discussion reflected a somewhat stable business environment compared to the rest of the year, adjusted for normal seasonal factors. Performance seemed to be more or less in line with the company's expectations on all fronts.

Business seems to have developed steadily in Q1

We did not find any major surprises in the tone of the company's messages in relation to the Q4 report and the comments made in connection with it, either in terms of the demand or pricing situation in the two businesses or in terms of the level of costs. However, on a slightly more positive note, the company's birch plywood business in Panel Industry only had to lay off staff for one week in the first quarter, despite sluggish market conditions, particularly in Central Europe, and despite subdued demand. In addition, the price of birch logs seems to have fallen slightly. In Sawn Timber industry and the chipboard segment of the Panel Board Industry, demand seems to have developed slightly positively due to a slight recovery in construction.

In Sawn Timber Industry, prices also seem to have continued their slight upward trend, while birch plywood prices remain stable. At least in our preliminary assessment, there is no major change pressures on our Koskisen Q1 forecasts. We have forecast an adjusted EBITDA of 7.1 MEUR on a revenue of 75 MEUR. Consensus forecasts are at roughly the same levels. Koskisen will publish its Q1 report on May 9.

It is still difficult to assess the impact of global themes on Koskinen's operating environment

Koskisen has no sales to the US, so the company is not directly affected by the tariffs. Lumber was also exempt from the tariffs now imposed on the EU and Canada, but the latter has different tariffs. Thus, tariffs could still disrupt global lumber flows, and both positive and negative scenarios can be drawn for Koskisen. On the other hand, the German infrastructure and defense sector stimulus would in principle be positive news for Koskisen, as Germany and Central Europe are important markets for the company, and the growing economic activity in the region would also be reflected in the demand for wood products. However, it is still quite impossible to assess the combined effects of multiple drivers and scenarios, some in different directions, and the associated probabilities.