No significant fluctuations emerged in Koskisen's market situation during Q4

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 1/13/2026 at 7:40 am EET.

On Monday, Koskisen held a pre-silent period call and published the questions and answers discussed during the call. They can be read here. Based on the company's communication, Q4 was largely in line with expectations operationally and market-wise, with no significant surprises. After reviewing the call, we do not see an initial need to adjust our forecasts for Koskisen's Q4.

Market situation remained stable but challenging

There were no major changes in the market situation for the Sawn Timber Industry during the latter part of the year, considering normal seasonal factors, in terms of either demand or pricing. However, Koskisen's sawmills were able to operate at full capacity despite moderate demand. The modest demand is due to the low volume of construction globally. Sawn timber pricing remained relatively stable in Q4 compared to Q3, when sales prices fell slightly from their levels at the beginning of the year. Geographically, there are no significant market differences, though there has been a slight recovery in the Middle East, at least until the recent escalation of the situation in Iran. Sales of energy wood in the Sawn Timber Industry were probably weaker in Q4 than in the comparison period, as the end of the year was warm, and prices of energy assortments also fell due to high inventories remaining from the previous heating season.   

In the Panel Industry, demand for the most important product group, birch plywood, was moderate, according to Koskisen, and picked up slightly toward the end of the year while the price of birch plywood remained stable. In contrast, the weak cycle in Finnish construction continued to weigh on chipboard volumes in Q4. In the Kore business, declining light commercial vehicle registrations in Europe also negatively impacted demand in Q4. Operationally, Q4 went according to plan for the Panel Industry, and the production challenges that plagued Q3 did not continue into Q4, as fully expected.

Raw material prices have decreased from their peaks

The price of wood, which has recently burdened Koskinen’s profitability, is showing signs of stabilization as log stumpage prices decreased significantly in H2. According to Koskisen, no significant changes in log stumpage prices are expected, but mill-gate prices of raw materials have begun to fall from the high levels seen in the fall. The shift to harvesting cheaper winter stands also contributes to this. The company's wood procurement has proceeded as planned, and sufficient volumes of raw material have been available, despite some turbulence in the Finnish wood market.

Regarding investments, the company announced that the first phase of the Panel Industry investment program was completed at the end of 2025. We commented on the news in more detail here. The investment level in 2026 will remain slightly higher than normal (i.e., the depreciation level) due to the Sawn Timber Industry's kiln investment and the second phase of the Panel Industry's investment program. However, this is well in line with our forecasts.

We see no need to change our forecasts for the time being

The published information was very much in line with our expectations, and based on the comments, the end of the year seems to have gone reasonably well, particularly for the most important product groups (sawn timber and birch plywood).  Therefore, we see no need to change Koskisen's forecasts at this time. We have predicted that Koskisen's revenue will grow by approximately 30% in Q4, reaching 95 MEUR, and that its adjusted EBITDA will grow by around 50%, reaching 8.6 MEUR (incl. inorganic growth from the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä). Koskisen will release its financial statements on February 13, 2026.