Spinnova H2'25 preview: Strategy execution and cost competitiveness in focus

Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/9/2026 at 8:18 am EET.

Spinnova will publish its 2025 financial statements next Thursday, February 12, at around 8:30 am EET. H2 was the first full reporting period for the company under the new strategy after the termination of the Suzano cooperation. In the report, we are particularly interested in comments on the progress of strategy execution, the development of the technology's cost-competitiveness, and the role of the consortium being built around the fiber. The company should make progress in these areas to attract parties interested in investing in its technology and for Spinnova to achieve revenue growth. We do not expect Spinnova to issue guidance for 2026, as we estimate that the current year will be largely spent developing the factors mentioned above.

H2 print focuses on strategy execution progress and development of cost competitiveness

In the report, we are particularly interested in the company's comments on the progress of its strategy, which focuses on improving the cost-efficiency of the production process in terms of both investment and production costs. In addition, we will focus on the practical role of the fiber-centric ecosystem, or consortium, in the next phases of commercialization. Spinnova aims to promote both the demand and supply of fiber through the consortium, and the company has recently announced several non-binding letters of intent. In our view, the primary purpose of the agreements is to demonstrate that there is demand for fiber volumes and processing opportunities in the value chain. However, it is still very unclear at what stage and with what structure the consortium could proceed with actual production investments. While the agreements support the commercialization path of fiber produced with Spinnova's technology, the most critical aspect for the company's investment story and value creation remains the technology sales at the core of its strategy, which requires reducing the technology's investment and production costs to a competitive level.

Rapid breakthroughs in improving the cost-efficiency of SPINNOVA® fiber are unlikely to have occurred during H2. In the report, we will especially be looking to see if the company has progressed in negotiations with parties that would be willing to invest in actual production facilities. In our view, the most challenging and possibly the last piece of the puzzle in building the consortium is finding parties interested in production investments. In addition, we are interested in any further information in the report regarding the continued development of Respin with ECCO, even though we believe Respin currently plays a secondary role in Spinnova's investment story compared to the more technologically advanced wood pulp-based solution.

Modest numbers are expected, yet cash position should remain secure

Spinnova has not had any technology delivery projects underway in H2 or the comparison period, so revenue has remained minimal (including marginal fiber sales from the Jyväskylä factory and development fees from Respin). However, the company's cost level should decrease as a result of the change negotiations in spring 2025 and other cost-saving measures, as well as the reduction of Woodspin's accounting losses. Therefore, we estimate Spinnova's operating loss to have been around 6.8 MEUR in H2.

We estimate Spinnova's cash to have decreased to approximately 37 MEUR (H1'25: 42 MEUR). Cash has been impacted by negative operating cash flow and certain investments, but on the other hand, the company received a 5 MEUR payment from Suzano as part of the termination of the Suzano cooperation. Therefore the company's cash position is still reasonable, but the time required to transition to the commercial phase is almost entirely open. Thus, the need for additional medium-term financing cannot be ruled out if technology sales do not progress in line with the company's targets. Net cash, on the other hand, involves some uncertainty, as we understand that the group has been responsible for a long lease liability for the Jyväskylä plant due to arrangements made with Suzano.

Spinnova has not issued guidance for 2025, and we do not expect the company to provide numerical guidance for 2026 either.