Automatic translation: Originally published in Finnish 20/10/2026, 04:44 GMT. Give feedback here.

The airports of Gibraltar and London Heathrow recently announced their traffic data for September, meaning that performance for the entire Q3 is now known. Passenger numbers decreased at both airports in July–September, and the number of air arrivals in Gibraltar decreased by 8% year on year. The weak performance in Gibraltar during the summer and early autumn wiped out the growth seen in the spring, and the number of air arrivals in January–September decreased by 2% year on year. 

Gibraltar passenger numbers continued to decrease in September

Monthly number of air arrivals in Gibraltar (pcs)

According to Gibraltar Airport statistics, air arrivals decreased by 8% year on year in July–September to just over 62.1 thousand. Passenger numbers decreased by 9% in July, 9% in August, and 7% in September, meaning that the entire Q3 continued the decline that began in June following growth of 5–16% in the spring. September's passenger volume was the lowest since 2021, and the number of air arrivals in January–September decreased by 2% from the comparison period. Gibraltar's passenger numbers have not recovered to pre-pandemic levels due to factors including Brexit, as the airport's total passenger volume (arrivals and departures) in January–September remained 15% below the corresponding period in 2019.

The number of air arrivals is a particularly key metric for Sunborn International, as it correlates strongly with regional hotel stays and the revenue of the Gibraltar yacht hotel. The number of air arrivals is a better predictor of regional hotel business performance than total passenger numbers, as many of the travelers crossing the border by land do not stay overnight in Gibraltar.

Regarding the outlook for hotel stays in Gibraltar, the key factor remains the EU-UK treaty concerning Gibraltar, which according to the Government of Gibraltar has been applied provisionally since July 15. Q3 was thus the first quarter during which the treaty was applied for almost the entire period, yet the number of air arrivals still decreased every month. According to the Gibraltar Chronicle, the Government of Gibraltar is negotiating with several airlines regarding new routes to key European destinations, but for now, Gibraltar only has flight connections to Great Britain. We see the treaty as opening up a clearly broader market for air passengers for Gibraltar than at present, but we believe its impact on hotel stays will only be seen with a delay as new routes are launched. In the coming months, the number of air passengers in Gibraltar will therefore still rely on routes from Great Britain.

Heathrow passenger numbers decreased, weighed down by Middle East routes

London Heathrow Airport passenger numbers

London Heathrow Airport passenger numbers decreased by 2% in July–September to ~22.9 million passengers. Passenger numbers decreased by 1.5% in July, 2% in August, and 2% in September, and Heathrow's passenger numbers have turned out below the comparison period every month since April. In January–September, passenger numbers were just under one percent below the comparison period. According to Heathrow, passenger numbers on Middle East routes decreased by 20% in September and by 23% in January–September year on year, while passenger numbers on Asia-Pacific routes increased by 3% in September. Unlike at Gibraltar Airport, however, Heathrow Airport's passenger flow has developed much more steadily, and in January–September passenger numbers exceeded the level of the corresponding period in 2019 by 3%. We note, however, that the statistic is not as relevant for the London yacht hotel as it is for Gibraltar, as the statistic reflects both arrivals and departures. In addition, Sunborn International's share of local hotel capacity in London is significantly smaller than in Gibraltar.

We believe the outlook for hotel stays in London is still overshadowed by the impact of the Iran conflict on long-haul travel, and Heathrow cites the Middle East conflict as a factor that weighed on traffic in September. VisitBritain lowered its forecast for 2026 at the end of August and now expects the number of trips to Great Britain to increase by 2% to 44.2 million, compared to a January forecast of 45.5 million trips. According to VisitBritain, the number of arrivals from long-haul markets will decrease by 3% this year, with the Iran conflict representing the most significant risk to the forecast. In the longer term, London hotel demand could also be affected by a tourist tax, as the UK government confirmed in September that it will grant mayors the power to levy a tax tied to the price of accommodation. The level or timeline of the London tax has not yet been decided, and the government expects mayors to present their plans by the beginning of 2028.

Q3 was weak for Gibraltar, financing solutions remain at the center of the investment case

Overall, passenger numbers in the key market areas for Sunborn International performed weakly in Q3, and the decline lasting throughout the entire quarter in Gibraltar is unfavorable for the yacht hotel. In the long term, the border treaty is an encouraging step toward unlocking Gibraltar's tourism potential, as we see the yacht hotel as unnecessarily large relative to the region's current customer flows.

Financing solutions remain at the center of Sunborn International's investment case. In May, the Gibraltar subsidiary refinanced its matured EUR 58 million bond, which removed the acute liquidity risk, and the maturity of the London subsidiary's bond was extended in January to February 2027. However, the group's net debt at the end of H1 was EUR 82 million, which limits the company's ability to advance new yacht hotel projects in London and Vancouver. Therefore, we believe that a partial sale of the Gibraltar yacht hotel or significant new capital is a prerequisite for the advancement of the growth strategy.