companyName

extensiveId

feedTypes

includeEstimates

includeOverview

includeOwnership

CompanyName_Query

companySlug

CompanyMetaData

CompanyContent_query

company

query CompanyName_Query(
  $companyName: String!
  $extensiveId: ID
  $feedTypes: [ContentType!]!
  $includeEstimates: Boolean!
  $includeOverview: Boolean!
  $includeOwnership: Boolean!
) {
  ...CompanyMetaData_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyContent_query_3Yp88o
}

fragment AnalystData on Analyst {
  name
  pageUrl
  jobTitle
  imgUrl
}

fragment AuthorList on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
}

fragment ChangePercentBlock_Company on Company {
  defaultInstrument {
    isin
    symbol
    priceData {
      diff1mPercentage
      diff1yPercentage
      diff3yPercentage
      diffFromStartPercentage
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompactFeed_3NXCcw on Query {
  compactFeed: feedContent(companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: $feedTypes}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
        ...TeaserExtraCompact_content
        createdAt
        companies {
          viewerIsFollowing
          id
        }
      }
      cursor
    }
    pageInfo {
      endCursor
      hasNextPage
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyAnalystQuery on Company {
  analysts {
    ...AnalystData
    name
    pageUrl
    jobTitle
    imgUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyContent_query_3Yp88o on Query {
  ...CompanyHeader_query_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyOwnership_query_Ux1x9 @include(if: $includeOwnership)
  ...CompanyFinancials_query_Ux1x9 @include(if: $includeEstimates)
  ...CompanyInvestorConsensus_query_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyPageTop_query_Ux1x9 @include(if: $includeOverview)
  ...CompanyPageBottom_query_2bVJwf @include(if: $includeOverview)
  ...CompanyDisclaimer_query_Ux1x9
  ...Extensive_query_2ua1C9
}

fragment CompanyCoverage_Company on Company {
  analysts {
    name
    id
  }
  isPayingCustomerOf
  isFormerCustomerOf
  isCorporateCustomer
  ...CompanyAnalystQuery
  defaultInstrument {
    ...TargetAndRecommendation_Company
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyDescription_Company on Company {
  description
  websiteUrl
  name
}

fragment CompanyDisclaimer_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    name
    isPayingCustomerOf
    isFormerCustomerOf
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyFinancials_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    ...NonERCompanyNumbers_query
    ...CompanyNumbers_query
    defaultInstrument {
      coreId
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyHeader_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    id
    companyInsref
    name
    viewerIsFollowing
    followersCount
    isCorporateCustomer
    hasPinpointData
    sector {
      sectorname
      industry
    }
    regions
    extensiveExists
    defaultInstrument {
      symbol
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
        lastPrice
        diff1dPercentage
      }
      marketplace {
        name
      }
      estimates: estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: false) {
        date
      }
      nonERCompanyNumberSet(first: 1, includeQuarters: false) {
        year
      }
      id
    }
    topOwners {
      name
    }
    transactions: insiderTransactions(filter: {types: [BUY, SELL, SUBSCRIPTION]}) {
      edges {
        node {
          date
          id
        }
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyInsiderTransactions on Company {
  name
  regions
  insiderTransactions(filter: {types: [BUY, EXERCISE_OF_SHARE_OPTION, PLEDGE, RECEPTION_OF_SHARE_PREMIUM, SELL, SUBSCRIPTION]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        insider
        position
        volume
        price
        date
        unit
        type
        relatedParty
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyInvestorConsensus_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    companyInsref
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyMetaData_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyName_Slug on Company {
  slug
}

fragment CompanyNumbers_query on Company {
  defaultInstrument {
    estimateData {
      modelType
      reportingCurrency
    }
    estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: true) {
      actualized {
        year
        quarter
        revenue
        revenueGrowth
        ebitda
        ebitAdjusted
        ebitReported
        preTaxProfit
        netEarnings
        epsReported
        epsAdjusted
        dividend
        payoutPercentage
        roePercent
        roiPercent
        enterpriseValue
        bookValue
        marketCap
        gearingPercent
        equityRatio
        dividendYield
        totalCosts
        loanLosses
        balanceSheetTotal
        tangibleBook
        cet1
        rwa
        sharePrice
        sharesTotal
      }
      estimates {
        year
        quarter
        revenue
        revenueGrowth
        ebitda
        ebitAdjusted
        ebitReported
        preTaxProfit
        netEarnings
        epsReported
        epsAdjusted
        dividend
        payoutPercentage
        roePercent
        roiPercent
        enterpriseValue
        bookValue
        marketCap
        gearingPercent
        equityRatio
        dividendYield
        totalCosts
        loanLosses
        balanceSheetTotal
        tangibleBook
        cet1
        rwa
        sharePrice
        sharesTotal
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      companyTransactions: estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: false) {
        actualized {
          year
          revenue
          ebitAdjusted
          epsAdjusted
          dividendYield
        }
        estimates {
          year
          revenue
          ebitAdjusted
          epsAdjusted
          dividendYield
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyOwners on Company {
  regions
  topOwners {
    name
    capitalPercent
    votingPowerPercent
  }
}

fragment CompanyOwnership_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    ...CompanyOwners
    ...CompanyInsiderTransactions
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyPageBottom_query_2bVJwf on Query {
  ...GeneralFeed_data_3NXCcw
  ...CompactFeed_3NXCcw
  ...UpcomingEventsQuery_Ux1x9
  ...RiskRecommendMatrix_query_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9
  ...NonERCompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    companyInsref
    ...ForumUpdates_Company
    defaultInstrument {
      coreId
      id
    }
    id
  }
  allFeed: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {hideUpcomingVideos: true}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  main: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {hideUpcomingVideos: true, types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT, ANALYST_COMMENT, VIDEO, ARTICLE]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  webcasts: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {hideUpcomingVideos: true, types: [WEBCAST]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  thirdPartyResearch: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [THIRD_PARTY_COMPANY_REPORT]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  releases: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [STOCK_EXCHANGE_RELEASE, PRESS_RELEASE]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyPageTop_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  ...StockChart_ChartQuery_Ux1x9
  ...LatestReports_query_Ux1x9
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    isFund
    name
    ...CompanyCoverage_Company
    ...CompanyName_Slug
    ...CompanyDescription_Company
    ...FundNumbers_Company
    ...ChangePercentBlock_Company
    ...KeyEstimateFigures_Company
    defaultInstrument {
      id
    }
    analysts {
      name
      id
    }
    id
  }
  extensiveReport: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysis: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku", "Arvonluojat"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysisArvonluojat: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyTagList on Company {
  pageUrl
  name
  viewerIsFollowing
}

fragment Extensive_query_2ua1C9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    extensive(extensiveId: $extensiveId) {
      publishedAt
      pageUrl
      content {
        id
        title
        lang
        slug
        htmlBody
        createdAt
        changedAt
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment ForumUpdates_Company on Company {
  name
  forum {
    threadUrl
    highlightedPosts {
      url
      author
      authorImgUrl
      text
      postedAt
      likesCount
    }
  }
}

fragment FundNumbers_Company on Company {
  defaultInstrument {
    isin
    symbol
    priceData {
      lastPrice
      ath
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment GeneralFeed_data_3NXCcw on Query {
  generalFeed: feedContent(first: 20, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: $feedTypes}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
        ...Teaser_content
        ...TeaserCompact_content
      }
      cursor
    }
    pageInfo {
      endCursor
      hasNextPage
    }
  }
}

fragment KeyEstimateFigures_Company on Company {
  marketData {
    marketCap
  }
  defaultInstrument {
    priceData {
      tradeCurrency
      dailyTurnover
      lastPrice
      marketCap
    }
    sector
    fundamentalData {
      ebit
      eps
      sales
      dividend
    }
    estimateData {
      modelType
      estimates {
        firstEstimateYear {
          year
          bookValue
          netSales
          dividendA
          epsAdjusted
          ebitAdjusted
          hybridLoan
          noOfShares
          netDebt
          mvMinorities
          mvAssociated
          roePercent
        }
      }
    }
    estimatesSharePrice: estimateTransactions(first: 1) {
      estimates {
        sharePrice
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment LatestReports_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  extensiveReport: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        createdAt
        pageUrl
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysis: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku", "Arvonluojat"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        createdAt
        pageUrl
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysisArvonluojat: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        createdAt
        pageUrl
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment NonERCompanyNumbers_query on Company {
  defaultInstrument {
    nonERNumberSet: nonERCompanyNumberSet(includeQuarters: true) {
      year
      quarter
      revenue
      ebitda
      ebitReported
      epsReported
      dividend
      sharesTotal
      roe
      roi
      enterpriseValue
      marketCap
      gearingRatio
      equityRatio
      dividendYield
      sharePrice
      currency
      evSales
      evEbitda
      evEbit
      pb
      netIncome
      ptp
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment NonERCompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      overviewGraphsData: nonERCompanyNumberSet(includeQuarters: false) {
        year
        revenue
        ebitReported
        epsReported
        dividend
        dividendYield
        currency
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment RiskRecommendMatrix_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      riskData: estimateTransactions(first: 1) {
        businessRisk
        valuationRisk
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment StockChart_ChartQuery_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    isFund
    defaultInstrument {
      coreId
      id
      marketOpen
      marketClose
      marketplace {
        region
      }
      returns {
        day
        week
        month
        threeMonths
        sixMonths
        year
        threeYears
        fiveYears
        tenYears
        ytd
        total
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment TargetAndRecommendation_Company on Instrument {
  estimateData {
    modelType
    researchCurrency
    estimates {
      date
      recommendation
      targetPrice
    }
  }
}

fragment TeaserCompact_content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  id
  type
  title
  createdAt
  isPremium
  pageUrl
  lang
  companies {
    ...CompanyTagList
    id
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
  ...AuthorList
}

fragment TeaserExtraCompact_content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  title
  createdAt
  pageUrl
  lang
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
  }
}

fragment Teaser_content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  id
  type
  title
  createdAt
  pageUrl
  imgUrl
  isPremium
  lang
  companies {
    ...CompanyTagList
    id
  }
  publishers {
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
  }
  ... on AnalystComment {
    preview
  }
  ... on Article {
    preview
  }
  ... on CompanyReport {
    preview
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    preview
  }
  ... on QA {
    preview
  }
  ... on Video {
    preview
    liveTime
    videoDuration
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    preview
    liveTime
  }
  ...AuthorList
  ...Reactions
}

fragment UpcomingEventsQuery_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      calendarEvents(first: 10) {
        edges {
          node {
            date
            type
            period
            id
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}


name

description

pageUrl

companyInsref

viewerIsFollowing

followersCount

isCorporateCustomer

hasPinpointData

sector

regions

extensiveExists

defaultInstrument

topOwners

insiderTransactions

isPayingCustomerOf

isFormerCustomerOf

extensive

feedContent

First North Stockholm

Coffee Stain Group brings together Scandinavian game developers and publishers with a portfolio of community-driven games primarily for PC and console. The company has built titles such as Goat Simulator, Satisfactory, Deep Rock Galactic, Valheim, Teardown and Welcome to Bloxburg. The group consists of several game studios, including Coffee Stain, Ghost Ship and Tuxedo Labs. The head office is located in Karlstad.

I wrote a small analysis of Coffee Stain Group in the bought/sold thread, and since the company doesn’t have its own company thread yet, at @Spwni’s request, I’m opening a dedicated thread for discussion and copying my analysis here:   The Company in Brief   Coffee Stain is a Swedish company spun off from Embracer Group, founded in 2010. The company develops and publishes games. As I understand it, the games are mostly “Indie” type, meaning lower budget and scale A or AA games (for example, Remedy makes larger budget and scale AAA games). The firm’s best-known IPs are below:  kuva1537×851 411 KB Coffee Stain consists of 13 smaller, independent studios that Coffee Stain Group either owns fully or partially. In addition, the company includes 2 publishing studios:  kuva1530×855 117 KB The firm has a moderate headcount relative to the whole, with about 250 employees divided among 13 studios. Coffee Stain’s goal is for “small teams to make big games for a massive audience.” The studios are located in Scandinavia, and the company operates on a “decentralized” model with small teams of 5-30 people. This structure is intended to unlock a capital-efficient ecosystem where autonomous studios are fully responsible for game development and updates, while the small main organization provides both strategic and publishing support. The company considers its employees to be its most important asset. Coffee Stain develops and publishes games on PC, consoles, and mobile devices, combining internal development with selective partnerships on promising projects. The firm’s philosophy is to prioritize gameplay quality and long-term cooperation with the player community. In practice, this means early access (early feedback from players), enabling user-generated content (“mods”), and continuous updating. This is meant to enable sustainable IPs with a committed player base. In addition to its own game development, the company seeks strategic partnerships, attempting to identify high-potential external projects at an early stage and trying to grow/nurture long-term business relationships with them. According to my own research, the biggest upcoming releases are Valheim 1.0, the PS5 release, and Deep Rock Galactic Rogue Core, but I haven’t found any more detailed information about upcoming releases or the pipeline. The firm’s flagship IPs have also received very good reviews, and while I haven’t played all the games myself, practically everyone in my social circle who has played them has praised at least Satisfactory, Valheim, and Deep Rock Galactic. I think this is a good sign. I believe there’s also plenty of “junk” within those studios and portfolios, but I didn’t start investigating so deeply that I would have gone through the past production of every studio. In the big picture, I think it’s actually a good thing that they experiment with all sorts of things with a low cost structure; this naturally results in a lot of unproductive junk, but in the case of big successes, the low cost structure allows the business to scale very efficiently.   Business Operations   Historically, the company has been able to grow very profitably, although they have been treading water for the last couple of years:  kuva566×451 40.5 KB The company’s fiscal year runs from April to March, which explains that annual breakdown. In this case, Cash EBIT means adjusted operating profit without depreciation and amortization, minus gross investments and the payment of lease liabilities. I’m not very skilled with accounting, but my own conclusion is as follows: in practice, this is EBIT minus investments, and according to my digging, it has been a smaller figure than adjusted EBIT, and generally, this is well in line with the company’s reported free cash flow.  kuva881×361 35.7 KB As seen above, even though the company can generate revenue and carve out substantial cash flow from old IPs (according to my calculations, EBIT% has historically been around 30-50% of revenue), revenue and earnings are typically very volatile for a gaming company, and peaks occur near successful releases.   Valuation   The firm’s market capitalization is currently 4.85 billion SEK. The firm has no debt and has 269m SEK in cash, so the EV is 4581m SEK. LTM free cash flow excluding working capital is 384m SEK. Using simple math, I get an EV/FCF figure of 12.6 or a cash flow yield of ~7.9%. If working capital is taken into account, this looks even better, but I’ll conservatively use that 8% cash flow yield. With this valuation, I don’t think much growth at all is baked into the share price; I assume the market is pricing this now as if the revenue/cash flow generated by the company won’t grow much, but rather will stay at the current level—the level that can be milked from the current portfolio and DLCs. Thus, I see that no future hit games are priced into the stock, which would grow revenue and cash flow.   Summary     An interesting, highly profitable growth company with a good track record from the past.   Focus and strong expertise in its own niche, which is always a plus.   From a player’s perspective, a good combination of a strategy focusing on games with good gameplay, while operating with low-cost small teams on low-cost A and AA-level games, which nonetheless have high revenue potential upon success; due to low costs, the business should scale well.   Since the creators are key in these types of games, it’s good to see that the company at least verbally regards employees as its greatest asset.   The current valuation is, in my opinion, very low, and I believe no growth is priced in.   If the company could achieve a similar performance as in the 22/23 fiscal year (which was a very strong year due to Valheim and Deep Rock Galactic Game Pass deals and the Goat Simulator 3 release), the firm would be priced at an EV/EBIT of ~4.6 with that 999m SEK EBIT.   In a favorable situation, I see both the company’s cash flow growing significantly from the current level and a significant rise in valuation multiples.   As a risk, I see the possibility of the company becoming a “value trap,” i.e., failing to release successful games in the future, causing revenue and cash flow to fade over time, and the share price along with them. Of course, with the current strong cash flow yield, I don’t see valuation multiples dropping significantly, so I don’t think much money can be lost here in the long run.   In line with the above, I see an excellent risk-reward ratio here; if good development continues, the business level could at least double from the current on a 5-10 year axis, and there’s room for growth in valuation multiples, but I believe the “downside” is limited.* Aki Pyysing has also written a column about the company that is definitely worth reading: https://www.sijoitustieto.fi/sijoitusartikkelit/coffee-stain-digisauruksen-hyppy-tuntemattomaan I haven’t read any other analyses of the stock, but as a note on this, the insiders have apparently been on a buying spree. According to the article, the main owner has bought shares for 11.3m SEK, the CEO for 8m SEK, and the CFO for 2m SEK. I tried to find confirmation for this myself but couldn’t find information anywhere, but in any case, if management buys heavily, I think it’s a positive signal; they wouldn’t buy otherwise if they didn’t see value in the business.   I believe the market is currently underpricing the company because no one knows about it. This is a firm valued at about 450 million euros, which was spun off in December from Embracer Group—a company despised by investors—so I assume that’s why no one is interested in the firm yet.   What thoughts does the company evoke in fellow investors? Have you researched it and reached the same conclusion as me? Have you researched it but decided not to invest, and if so, why? Have you seen analysis of the stock anywhere else?

The IP portfolio and history are great, BUT when looking at what has been achieved in recent years and what’s in the pipeline, maybe the lightbulb will finally flick on for someone. History is no guarantee of the future! The company’s hit games are all getting old. Goat Sim was a good joke 10 years ago; Deep Rock, Satisfactory, and Valheim have all finally reached full release mode, so it’s hard to see growth. The Roblox meta-game is dying a slow death. Teardown came and went. What’s next???  The company itself expects the figures to decline as they have to wait a while for the next hits. Meanwhile, cash is burning and unfortunately, there is no guarantee of success. How much money will be burned until the next game breaks through? We don’t know! Maybe never… The downside is terrifying.  How many of the hit-making developers are still in-house? We don’t know, but the parent company Coffee Stain has certainly been leaking badly for a couple of years, and familiar names are popping up developing new hit games elsewhere. However, the biggest challenge in my opinion is the vagueness of all the financial figures inherited from Empu (Embracer Group)! Can the figures be trusted or can any conclusions be drawn when every line is adjusted after the previous lines have already been adjusted, and I suspect there is plenty of “hot air” in the balance sheet as well. The company asks us to look only at adjusted EBIT, but the real metric is perhaps Cash Flow, which is soon to be in the red—though that may or may not be due to the adjustments. I tried to figure out Empu’s (Embracer Group’s) similar accounting maneuvers back in the day, but it always went right over my head. The company looks cheap now, but if and when the gaming market downturn hits this one too and no new hits are produced, the cash will dry up quickly and the valuation will unravel even faster. The ownership structure is also somewhat questionable; Lars (Lars Wingefors), who built and then destroyed Empu (Embracer Group), is the largest shareholder and does whatever he wants with the company. Other shareholders are not listened to.

Tässä tuli oikeastaan itseäni mietityttäneet asiat esille, joten kuopaistaan vielä hiukan pintaa syvemmälle kohta kerrallaan.  Viimeiset pari vuotta on ollut hiljaista. Isoimmat julkaisut ovat olleet käsittääkseni Deep Rock Galactic Survivor ja Satisfactory full release. Fakta on kuitenkin että liikevaihto ja kassavirrat ovat hiljalleen taantumassa. Pipelinessä Deep Rock Galactic Rogue Core tulee todennäköisesti antamaan nostetta, mutta mitään huippumenestystä pelistä tuskin tulee. Julkaisupäivää pelille ei ole vielä annettu, mutta oletan että peli julkaistaan tänä vuonna, tai ensi vuoden alussa. Myös Valheimin PS5 versio ja Full Release tulee antamaan nostetta, mutta kuinka paljon? Muuten tietääkseni pipelinessä ei kauheasti ole, mutta uskoisin että Goat Simulatoria ja Satisfactorya voi vielä lypsää vähintään DLC:llä, miksei jopa jatko-osillakin. Kuitenkin firman omien puheiden mukaan ajatus on kehittää pelejä pitkään, joten näillä IP:llä ei kannata odottaa että muutaman vuoden välein tulee pelille jatko-osaa. Olettaisin että pelejä kehitetään ja yritetään lypsää kassavirtaa DLC:llä niin pitkään kuin on mahdollista, ja sitten siirrytään jatko-osaan tai uuteen projektiin. Mistä sitten tulee Coffee Stainin seuraava hitti IP? Sitä ei kukaan tiedä. Ei välttämättä mistään. Mutta toisaalta en usko että näitä voi firma itsekään pipelineen ennustaa, niitä tulee jos on tullakseen. Firman joka on 15 vuodessa pystynyt luomaan tyhjistä useita paljon pidettyjä ja menestyneitä IP:tä voisi olettaa pystyvän siihen uudestaan myös tulevaisuudessa. Mutta kuten sanoit, historia ei ole tae tulevasta.  Korjataanpa tässä ensinnäkin yksi asiavirhe. Valheim on vielä Early Access - vaiheessa, ei Full Release moodissa. Full Release on tulossa oletettavasti tänä vuonna, mutta tarkkaa päivää ei ole tiedossa. Rikotaanko early access launch pelaajaennätystä enää? Tuskin, mutta uskoisin että näin pidetyllä pelillä on vielä pitkä myyntihäntä tiedossa, ja DLC:llä voi lypsää IP:stä rahaa vielä vuosia. Peli on saanut aiemminkin päivitysten yhteydessä merkittäviä pelaajapiikkejä, joiden voisi olettaa kääntyvän myös myynniksi:  Goat simulator 3 ei ainakaan Steam:n pelaajatilastojen mukaan Goat Simulatorin parhaimpaan suosioon yltänyt, mutta peli teki silti marraskuussa uuden pelaajahuipun Steamissä joten ei tämä täysin kuollut IP ole:   Satisfactoryn osalta on myös hyvä huomata, että vaikka peli on ollut markkinalla 6+ vuotta, full release oli vasta vuoden 2024 lopulla jolloin pelillä oli pelaajaennätys Steamtilastojen perusteella:  Eli peli teki pelaajaennätyksensä oltuaan 5 vuotta markkinalla. Kun asiaa ajattelee näin niin ei tuo niin lohduttomalta mielestäni näytä. Teardowniin ja Bloxburgiin en osaa ottaa kantaa, mutta omissa ajatuksissa nämä on taantuvia IP:tä. Goat Simulatorista voidaan varmaan vielä jotain lypsää DLC:llä ja jatko-osilla mutta sillekkään en isoja odotuksia anna. Uskon kuitenkin että Deep Rock Galactic, Satisfactory ja Valheim on vielä varaa kehittää IP:tä, ja aikanaan tehdä jopa menestyviä jatko-osia. Jos Coffee Stain:lta tulee joskus vielä menestyvä uusi IP, niin sitä ei voi vielä kukaan tietää että mikä se on ja milloin, ja se nähdään tulevaisuudessa. Mielestäni nyky-arvostuksella kasvua ei ole ollenkaan hinnoiteltu osakkeen hintaan joten tämä on mahdollinen positiivinen optio jonka saa osakkeen nykyhinnalla “ilmaiseksi”.   Tutkitaanpa mihin sitä rahaa oikein palaa? Tällä hetkellä yhtiön kassavirta riittää hyvin kattamaan investoinnit, vaikka kassavirta onkin laskusuunnassa tällä hetkellä. Tuohon tuloslukujen sekavuuteen voin jokseenkin yhtyä. En ole mikään kirjanpitoniilo mutta otin viimeisimmästä Q2 raportista lukemia exceliin ja laskin itse vapaata kassavirtaa ja vertasin firman raportoimiin lukemiin:     mSEK Q2 2025 H1 2025 H1 2024 2024-2025 LTM (calc)     EBIT 44 46 133 322 235   Cash EBIT 69 106 189 484 401   Adjusted Ebit 83 126 240 644 530   Cash flow from operating activities 129 261 420 847 688   Cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital 108 232 377 735 590   Investing activities -46 -89 -132 -230 -187   Free cash flow (calc) 62 143 245 505 403   Free cash flow before working capital (reported) 57 135 236 486 385           Cash and cash equivalents at the end of period 269 269 576 472    Cash flow from financing activities -211 -375 -23 -456    FCF (calc) + cash flow from financing activities -149 -232 222 49            Cash (calc) 240        LTM sarakkeeseen olen itse laskenut lukemat auki tilikauden 2024-2025, sekä H1 2025 ja H1 2024 lukemien perusteella. Free cash flow (calc.) on siis mitä itse laskin ottamalla Cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital, ja vähentämällä tästä investoinnit eli investing activities, näin vapaa kassavirta käsittääkseni lasketaan. Itse laskemani vapaa kassavirta on hyvin linjassa firman raportoimien lukemien kanssa. Koska kassa on pienentynyt, niin laskin vielä itse että mitä kassassa pitäisi olla rahaa suurpiirteisesti tuolla omalla kassavirtalaskelmallani, lopputulos oli 240 mSEK vs yhtiön raportoima 269 mSEK. Tuo kassasta kadonnut raha on siis mennyt rahoitukseen, tarkemmin ottaen liiketoimiin omistajien kanssa:  Oletan siis että rahaa on pumpattu pihalle emoyhtiöön. Nyt kun yhtiö on itsenäinen pörssilistattu yritys niin sen tekemällä vapaalla kassavirralla kassa alkaa taas paisumaan, kunnes maksetaan osinkoja tai ostetaan omia osakkeita pois. Lopputulemana sain tästä sen että mielestäni yhtiön raportoima Cash EBIT ja FCF ovat hyvin linjassa itse laskemiini, olettaen että cash flow from operating activities pitää todella paikkaansa. Jos tämä on vääristetty lukema niin se on asia erikseen mutta tässä vaiheessa en näe syytä epäillä firmaa kirjanpitorikoksista. Toki se että vapaa kassavirta on ollut laskussa viimeisen pari vuotta ei ole erityisen hyvä merkki, mutta uskon kuitenkin että suunta saadaan tänä vuonna käännettyä. Katsotaan miten käy. Tästä kuitenkin on vielä mielestäni pitkä matka siihen että yrityksen vapaa kassavirta on miinuksella ja että kassaa poltetaan investointeihin tai operatiiviseen toimintaan. Nähdäkseni siis tulevat investoinnit on vielä hyvin turvattu nykyisilläkin kassavirroilla.  Tähän asiaan en ole perehtynyt, myönnettäköön se. Mikäli tämä pitää paikkaansa niin tämä on toki tulevaisuutta ajatellen huono merkki, mutta tulevaisuudessahan asioiden todellinen laita nähdään. Toivotaan että jos parhaat tekijät ovat vaihtaneet firmaa niin tilalle saadaan rekrytoitua uusia, innovatiivisia työntekijöitä.  Tulevaisuus jää nähtäväksi. Kuten yllä osoitin, en kuitenkaan ole huolissani rahavirtojen tai kassan riittävyydestä. Mutta kuten sanoit, jos ei seuraavaan pariin vuoteen saada yhtiötä takaisin kasvuladulle vaan tulos ja kassavirta jatkaa laskussa niin osakekurssi tulee laskemaan. Näiltä tasoilta en enää merkittävää arvostuksen purkautumista näe, mutta voin olla tämän kanssa väärässä. Toki laskupainetta kurssissa varmasti on myös spinoff:n myötä kun rahastot yms. myyvät tätä. Osakemarkkinoilta harvoin saa hyvää halvalla, jos tulevaisuudessa ei näy mitään uhkakuvia. En siis väitä että riskejä ei ole olemassa, niitä kyllä on ja ne ovat ihan realistisia, mutta jos yhtiö palaa takaisin kasvuladulle, mikä on mielestäni myös täysin realistista, niin osakekurssi voi moninkertaistua. Onko liiketoiminnan taantuman todennäköisyys moninkertainen kasvuun palaamisen sijaan? Mielestäni ei ole, joten siksi näen tällä hetkellä riski-tuottosuhteen houkuttelavana. Toki jos sijoittaja haluaa vain varmoja, tasaisesti kasvavia kassavirtoja, niin kannattaa katsoa muita yhtiöitä kuin tämä. Ja peliala ei muutenkaan ole tälläiselle sijoittajalle soveltuva muutamia poikkeuksia lukuunottamatta.  Myönnettäköön että Lars:n en ole omistajana tutustunut, joten tästä olisi mielenkiintoista kuulla lisää.

Thanks for the great thread opening and the discussions! I did some homework myself by reading Coffee Stain’s listing prospectus, among other things. My current take on the company: Major owner  As I understand it, Lars isn’t a malicious major owner, but his past performance in Embracer’s debt-driven “move fast and break things” growth and the collapse of the empire doesn’t inspire confidence. Indie / AA games  This specific segment of the market is suffering the most from the gaming recession. Rovio was a similar case on the stock exchange, where the cash flow from Angry Birds slowly faded, and investors expected growth from new games backed by a solid cash position. Investors were saved thanks to an acquisition offer, but the company’s development since then has followed the path that is statistically most likely: old hit games slowly decline, while new ones fail to succeed commercially. Impressive core portfolio  Even if the games are AA or just “memes,” the core portfolio has sold well historically. In the gaming market, a good rule of thumb is that evergreen games don’t really age once they’ve found their audience. In addition, the company has a strong track record of making good games.  See e.g. Goat Simulator:  Or Deep Galactic:  Stock valuation  Well… the market cap is around 5 billion SEK and net cash is over 200 million. The company’s sales are around one billion SEK, and profitability could be somewhere in the 30-50% range over time. @Housumies has already crunched the numbers well above, and I have nothing to add to that. Is an EV/FCF of, say, 12.5x really that bad? On the other hand, it’s not like an EV/FCF of “10x” or “8x,” which are often the rule-of-thumb multiples when growth is nowhere to be seen and the top line is slowly melting away…

[https://steamdb.info/app/2605790/charts/]  Someone is waiting for Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core as well. Early Access is rumored to start in Q2 2026.  [https://steamdb.info/app/2352620/charts/]  And a last-minute addition (after Capital Markets Day) to Coffee Stain was Fellowship, which is also in early access.  Lars Wingefors built Embracer from THQ’s bankruptcy into a multi-billion entity. Over-expansion and a drastic correction explain the current lack of trust. I don’t personally believe that Lars is micromanaging Coffee Stain, although major strategic decisions naturally require the support of the principal owner. The shareholder list includes many owners inherited from Embracer, who will likely continue to sell heavily for a while. In the case of Asmodee, one block of Lars’s holdings has been sold. A positive note regarding Coffee Stain’s share valuation is that it seems the market’s distrust is staying with the former parent company, and the current valuation level is fairly neutral. If Westberg and his partners get Rogue Core up to speed, one could expect a million sales already this year; those follower numbers are quite impressive and continue to grow as the early access release approaches.

Perhaps for the first time in its life, Gemini is right. AAA doesn’t sell in a recession, but high-quality AA/Indie games will find their audience. Whether Coffee Stain is capable of creating something new and revolutionary, we don’t know, but I would say that Coffee Stain has about a 1000% better chance of success than its old parent company. Sales of Emppu’s (Embracer’s) eurojank IP trash have already suffered, as players crave experiences and something actually fun and new. Coffee Stain is, of course, competing with other Swedes, and last year’s biggest surprises and the brand new game genre “friendslop” are completely dominated by the Swedes. The games were, however, developed in the same cities where Coffee Stain operates, but by others.  If the story doesn’t take flight and the coffee spills on the floor, a management buyout is very possible in a couple of years; otherwise, I don’t believe in an acquisition, nor are there many buyers in the market right now as everyone has their own challenges. If Emppu continues its floundering, it will be sold, provided the price drops enough and more bad studios are closed.

Is most of the selling pressure the stock is experiencing presumably technical selling pressure caused by the spinoff from funds and ETFs? Has anyone tried to estimate how many shares are still left to be sold?  Why do you believe Indie/AA games suffer the most? Do you believe that Coffee Stain, despite its prominent portfolio, is among these victims? What is your view on the duration of this recession, or do you believe it is a more permanent structural change? Gemini predicted AAA games to be the biggest losers and forecasted a veritable renaissance for high-quality AA games    Gaming industry recession Financially and structurally, the AAA game market (large giant-budget games) suffers the most from the current recession and structural change in the gaming market. While all sectors have their own challenges, the AAA sector has drifted into a situation where its traditional business model is broken. Below is a breakdown of how the recession hits different sectors: 1. AAA games: The biggest loser (Structural crisis) AAA games (e.g., Call of Duty, Assassin’s Creed, Sony exclusives) are in the most trouble because their risk level has become unsustainable.   Cost crisis: The development of a single top-tier game now costs $200–400 million (plus marketing). For such a game to break even, it must sell millions of copies at full price immediately upon release.   “All or nothing” risk: If a massive investment flops (as happened with games like Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League or Concord), it can bring down the entire studio or lead to layoffs for hundreds of people. There is no longer any room for failure.   Lack of innovation: Because the risks are so high, publishers do not dare to try anything new. Only safe sequels and remakes are made, which bores players and further lowers sales.   Limited player time: AAA games often try to be “live service” offerings that take up all of a player’s free time. However, players do not have time for ten different giant games, causing new contenders to die in the market immediately.   2. Indie games: Suffering from oversupply (Visibility crisis) Small, independent game studios (Indie) may actually be doing better than AAA studios in relation to invested capital, but they have one massive problem:   Drowning in the masses: Tools (such as Unity, Unreal, AI) have made game development easier. Tens of thousands of games are released on Steam every year. Even a good game can go completely unnoticed because there is no marketing budget.   Funding drying up: Investors are more cautious. Before, it was easier to get money for a promising idea; now, a nearly finished product or a strong community is required before funding is granted.   3. AA games: Potential winner (Renaissance) AA games (“Double-A”) are mid-budget games that do not compete on the cost of graphics but often on gameplay or story (e.g., Remedy, Larian Studios, many Japanese RPGs).   Flexibility: They can be made for $20–50 million. If the game sells “only” a million copies, it is a hit, whereas for a AAA game, that would be a catastrophe.   Creative freedom: AA games can take risks that AAA does not dare to, yet they are higher quality than basic indies. Many players have moved to these games after AAA disappointments (examples being Baldur’s Gate 3 or Palworld, which in a way sit in this middle ground or at the high end of the indie field).   Summary The AAA sector suffers the most because its “grow or die” model has hit a wall. Players no longer agree to pay 80 euros for unfinished games, and studios can no longer turn a profit with old sales figures as costs spiral out of control.    Coffee stain Coffee Stain’s departure from Embracer Group is one of the most followed structural changes in the gaming industry. The spinoff was officially realized in December 2025, and the company is now an independent public company (listed on Stockholm’s Nasdaq First North list). Here is an analysis of the situation and my assessment of how the spinoff affects the share price development in the short and long term.  1. Immediate effect of the spinoff on the price (Late 2025) The spinoff was carried out as a so-called Lex ASEA dividend: Embracer shareholders received one Coffee Stain share for every Embracer share they owned.   Technical decline: As expected, Embracer’s (now renamed Fellowship Entertainment) share price fell significantly (about 30%) immediately after the spinoff. This is not due to the company being bad, but because value “detached” from the parent company into the new company.   Initial selling pressure: The start of the new listing (ticker: COFFEE B) in January 2026 has been challenging. Many large funds and index investors who owned Embracer may sell Coffee Stain shares automatically because it is too small a company for their investment strategy or it is listed on the “wrong” list (First North vs. main list).   2. Why is Coffee Stain attractive as an independent? Although early price volatility is high, the spinoff is seen among investors as an opportunity to “clean up” the company’s profile.   Unlocking valuation multiples: Under Embracer, Coffee Stain suffered from the parent company’s debt problems and negative reputation. As an independent company, its strong cash flow (based on hit games like Satisfactory and Valheim) will be better highlighted.   Focused story: Investors like “clean” companies. Coffee Stain is now a clear AA and indie game house with high margins. It no longer tries to finance the loss-making AAA projects of other studios.   3. Estimate of share price development in 2026 I believe the price development will follow a frequently seen spinoff pattern (cf. Mandatum or Kalmar in Finland):   Phase 1 (1–3 months): Downward pressure. Sales by passive investors keep the price low, even if the company’s figures are good.   Phase 2 (3–9 months): Stabilization. The market begins to price the company according to its own merits, not Embracer’s history. At this stage, the first independent interim reports are critical.   Phase 3 (12+ months): Rise in valuation level. If Coffee Stain can demonstrate that it is capable of finding new “Valheims” or maintaining revenues from games like Deep Rock Galactic, its stock can rise to significantly higher multiples than its parent company.    In summary: In the short term, the spinoff has caused a price drop and uncertainty, but it releases Coffee Stain’s potential. It is now a “small and feisty” player that is a much more attractive acquisition target than it was as part of the massive Embracer empire.    Edit. Do the gaming experts on the forum have any insight into how attractive this is as an acquisition target?

Coffee Stain Group

20.85 SEK

-2.57 %

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