Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/3/2026 at 8:28 pm EEST.

Aktia's Q2 report was operationally strong, and the robust new sales in asset management, in particular, were a positive surprise. We have made small positive forecast changes and are revising our target price to EUR 13.0 (from EUR 12.0). We also reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and still consider the stock's expected return attractive.

Q2 print well above expectations

Aktia’s comparable EBIT rose to 43.7 MEUR (26.2 MEUR) in Q2, significantly exceeding our 34.4 MEUR estimate. However, the beat was qualitatively soft, as it mainly stemmed from volatile net income from life insurance. Operationally, the most important development was the turnaround in net interest income, which fell 5% year-on-year to 33.1 MEUR but rose 3% quarter-on-quarter – reinforcing our view that the income stream has bottomed out. Net commission income grew by 7% to 32.5 MEUR, driven by fund income, and assets under management rose to a record high of 18.1 BEUR, with net subscriptions in Q2 at ~380 MEUR (over 600 MEUR in H1). Comparable costs increased as expected, driven by, among other things, IT investments.

Another positive was the increase in employee satisfaction (eNPS) to 35, which is clearly the highest level in recent years and already in line with key peers. We consider this development important, as asset management is highly personnel-dependent, and higher turnover compared to Aktia's peers has previously burdened the business. Our morning commentary on the Q2 report can be read here.

Forecasts up heftily for the current year

We significantly raised our current year estimates following the Q2 earnings beat, while forecast changes for 2027–2028 were moderate. We lowered our loan book growth forecasts for the coming years, as the housing market is not yet showing signs of recovery. Correspondingly, we raised our net interest margin forecasts after the Q2 output, as we consider Q1 to be the margin's bottom. Fee income forecasts rose due to strong asset under management development, although institution-focused new sales lowered our estimate for the average fee level. We slightly increased our cost estimates due to growth investments in asset management and increasing IT and AI investments.

Aktia raised its guidance in the Q2 report and now expects comparable EBIT to be approximately at or slightly above last year's level of 106 MEUR. After a strong H1, the guidance appears cautious, as it allows for a decline in earnings in H2. We consider a further upward revision later in the year to be very possible if new sales in asset management remain strong. Overall, we expect this year's earnings to increase significantly, but the growth is partly based on non-recurring items. In 2027, earnings are expected to show moderate growth in our forecasts, driven by the recovery of net interest income. We expect Aktia's payout ratio to remain around the 60% target level in the coming years, as the credit risk model update weighed on solvency in Q2. However, the payout ratio should gradually rise to around 80%, in line with the rest of the industry.

Valuation still moderate

We have examined Aktia's valuation through balance sheet multiples, Nordic bank peers and the dividend model. The methods indicate that the value of the share is EUR 11.9-14.6 (was EUR 11.6-14.4), with a midpoint of around EUR 13.3. The fundamental P/B analysis and peer regression provide a consistent picture of moderate pricing, and the dividend model supports the expected return. We believe the upside in the multiples and the strong dividend yield still provide an attractive expected return, but the stock is not an exceptionally good buying opportunity: valuation levels in the Nordic banking sector have tightened during 2026, which also limits the upside in Aktia's multiples.