Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/16/2026 at 8:00 am EET.

Kalmar's Q4 result fell slightly short of our expectations due to margin development. Meanwhile, orders soared to record levels, blowing both our forecasts and the consensus out of the water. The company's market situation, on the other hand, remained stable, and the company expected the situation to remain largely unchanged in the beginning of the year. In our view, the guidance given for the current year was again conservative, but based on the company's comments, it suggests floor-level development. Reflecting the overall picture, forecast changes remained minor for the coming years. We expect the earnings growth we forecast will raise this high-quality company's risk-adjusted expected return to a sufficient level. Consequently, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and revise our target price to EUR 48 (prev. EUR 47), reflecting minor positive upgrades to the forecast.

Result slightly below expectations, weighed down by margins

In Q4, the company’s revenue grew by 11%, which was in line with our expectations and livelier than consensus estimates. Kalmar's adjusted EBIT amounted to 60.5 MEUR, missing our expectations but meeting the consensus. This was due to margin development falling short of expectations, weighed down by the correction of an internal accounting error relating to tariffs for Services in Q3. In contrast, the margin level for Equipment was higher than we had expected. Reflecting the operating result, the company's reported EPS fell slightly short of our estimate. The dividend proposal (EUR 1.10), for its part, was in line with our estimate.

Kalmar's Q4 order intake was a record high (511 MEUR, +5% y/y), clearly exceeding our and the consensus estimates (451 MEUR). The beat was driven by solid equipment orders (+5% y/y), boosted by a few significant orders (e.g., the major straddle carrier order announced on the day of the earnings release). According to the company, however, order development should be viewed beyond a single quarter, as there were fewer large equipment orders than usual in Q3, for example. Service orders also reached a record high (+6% y/y), with stable development across the entire portfolio.

We only made small changes to the estimates

In its 2026 guidance, Kalmar expects its comparable EBIT margin to exceed 12.5%. In our opinion, the guidance was again on the conservative side, and based on Kalmar's comments, the guidance can once again be seen as indicating a minimum level of development (cf. 2025 adj. EBIT-% 12.8%). In our view, the guidance also reflects market uncertainties and the company's stable near-term demand expectations. According to Kalmar, overall demand remained relatively stable in Q4, and the company expected total demand in H1'26 to remain roughly the same as in H2'25.

Based on the report, guidance, and company comments, we made only very minor adjustments to our assumptions for the coming years. Following the estimate revisions, our operational earnings estimates remained stable (adj. EBIT 2026e-27e +1%). We now expect the adjusted EBIT margin for 2026 to be 13.3% (was 13.4%). We expect earnings growth at a good level in the coming years (2026e-28e adj. EBIT growth: 8-11%/year), supported by growth in global container traffic, the company's strong market position, and the Driving Excellence program.

Valuation encourages staying on board

With our updated forecasts, the EV/EBIT ratios considering Kalmar's strong balance sheet in 2026 and 2027 are just over 11x and 10x. The corresponding net profit-based P/E ratios are approximately 16x and 14x. We consider these multiples to be moderate for a quality company like Kalmar, and they are in the middle of the levels we deem neutral for this year (EV/EBIT 11x-13x, P/E 14x-17x). With the gradual improvement of the economic cycle and the earnings growth we estimate for the coming years, we expect the share's risk-adjusted expected return to rise to a sufficient level. Our positive view is also supported by our DCF model that is above the current price (EUR ~49 per share).