Koskisen Q4'25: We see no conflict between price and value

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/16/2026 at 7:44 am EET.

We reiterate our EUR 9.00 target price and Reduce recommendation for Koskisen. We lowered our near-term estimates for Koskisen slightly, as the guidance for the current year was a bit more cautious than we expected. We see clear earnings growth potential for Koskisen in the coming years, as the construction cycle gradually recovers and the company's substantial investments over the past years reach fruition. However, we believe this has already been adequately priced into the share (2026e: P/E 12x), which is why the expected return on the share will not exceed the required return for the time being.

Q4 saw growth, but profitability faltered

In Q4, Koskisen's revenue increased by over 30% to 95 MEUR and adjusted EBITDA by 7% to 6.2 MEUR. Growth, driven by Sawn Timber Industry volumes and the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä, was in line with our and consensus estimates, but profitability in both units fell short of expectations. The decline in earnings, due in particular to the continuing high price of wood in the Sawn Timber Industry, slightly lower sales prices, and a weakening by-product business, was disappointing. The dividend proposal was also lower than expected, but in Koskisen's investment story, which is currently focused on growth, we believe that dividends play a minor role in any case.

Forecasts remain largely unchanged, although guidance was slightly more cautious than expected

Koskisen's guidance for 2026 was for revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of 8–12%. In terms of revenue, the guidance was exactly in line with expectations, as our and consensus forecasts predicted double-digit growth for the company this year (Koskisen did not use adjectives in its guidance). However, the midpoint of the profitability guidance fell quite clearly below the consensus forecast and also slightly below our own forecast (2026e adj. EBITDA-% 10.6 % prior to the report). There are still no signs of recovery in the market outlook, with weakness in construction and the negative effects of geopolitical uncertainty continuing. A bright spot was the positive development in demand for birch plywood, which continued into the new year, as well as the moderate decline in wood prices. While the company's investments are gradually yielding efficiency gains, faster earnings growth (i.e. the upper end of the range) would also require a boost from market conditions.

We lowered our estimates for Koskisen's adjusted EBITDA by 2-3% over the next few years, primarily due to volume growth rates in both units and the profitability of the Sawn Timber Industry's by-product businesses. We expect Koskisen's revenue and EBITDA to continue to grow, driven by the gradual recovery of the construction cycle, investment efficiency gains and the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä (2025 ACT-2028e adj. EBITDA CAGR 21%). In our estimates, persistently high raw material prices will limit profitability despite revenue growth, and we expect the company to fall well short of its margin targets (cf. over 15% EBITDA-% over the cycle vs. 2026e-2028e adj. EBITDA-% approximately 11%). 

Expected return still quite neutral

Koskisen’s EV/EBITDA ratios for 2026 and 2027, which take into account the healthy balance sheet, are approximately 6x and 5x, while the corresponding P/E ratios are 12x and 10x. These multiples fall within our accepted ranges for this year, given the company's estimated return on capital and risk profile, and are at the lower end of our accepted ranges for next year. We consider this to be a fairly neutral overall picture, given the somewhat balanced positive and negative risks associated with the forecasts. The DCF value of the share is also at the level of the share price and our target price. Thus, Koskisen's expected return. based on earnings growth, falling multiples (2025 ACT P/E about 25x). and a dividend yield of around 2% is, in our view, roughly at the level of the required return until earnings growth shows signs of acceleration.