New Talenom: Finland sustains, Spain propels

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 3/3/2026 at 8:00 am EET.

We issue an Accumulate recommendation for the new Talenom with a target price of EUR 1.9 following the Easor spin-off. We see significant growth opportunities for Talenom, especially in Spain, but for now, the company generates its profit and cash flow in Finland. Based on our sum-of-the-parts analysis, we believe the valuation of the accounting firm business is quite attractive, even though the valuation multiples at the group level are still high. Currently, there is limited financial data available for Talenom, excluding Easor, but visibility will significantly improve after the upcoming financial statement release.

Growth-oriented and international accounting firm business

Following the demerger, Talenom is an accounting firm focused specifically on the SME sector, operating in Finland, Sweden, and Spain. The company has a strong track record of profitable growth in Finland, a so far unsuccessful M&A history in Sweden, and a promisingly developed business in Spain. In our view, the company's greatest growth opportunities lie in Spain, while Finland generates important cash flow for the company. In the accounting industry, cash flow is recurring and customer relationships are typically long-lasting, which enables a strong cash and dividend flow. Talenom's growth target is over 10% annually in the medium term, which we believe is a challenging goal in a disruptive industry.

We have aimed to adjust the 2025 forecasts based on Talenom's published carve-out figures, but the information is still limited. For example, we only have Q1-Q3'25 key figures for each country, which is why we have had to make assumptions about the quarterly figures. We are also trying to separate Easor from Talenom's balance sheet, but the figures will be refined in connection with the financial statements. In addition, we have temporarily included Talenom's figures from previous years, even though they are based on a different group structure. Therefore, post-2025 figures are not comparable. 

The accounting firm business is investing in growth in 2026

Talenom has guided that the accounting firm business's 2026 revenue will be ~110-120 MEUR and comparable EBITDA ~18-22 MEUR. We have revised our revenue estimate to 113 MEUR. We estimate that revenue growth will depend on acquisitions, as we believe organic growth is limited in Finland and negative in Sweden. Significant organic growth can only be expected in Spain, in addition to which Talenom already increased its Spanish revenue by around 3 MEUR through M&A before the turn of the year. Talenom's cost structure will increase as the company becomes a separate listed company. Additionally, the company has increased its sales and marketing investments, aiming to accelerate growth in the coming years. We estimate this will weaken profitability in Finland, especially in the short term, though it remains at a healthy level. Talenom estimates that the Swedish EBITDA will turn positive in 2026, and the company expects profitable growth in Spain. We consider both assumptions reasonable. We continue to expect Talenom's EBITDA to be around 20 MEUR in 2026, which is in the middle of the company's guidance range. The demerger will incur one-off costs, which our Q1'26 estimate now includes at 0.5 MEUR.

Valuation does not require miracles

Talenom's international business is currently performing poorly in Spain and miserably in Sweden, but both operations still hold value. Therefore, we primarily use a sum-of-the-parts analysis in our valuation, which leads us to our target price of EUR 1.9. Over 72% of the value is based on Finland, over 19% on the well-developed Spanish operations, and about 8% on the problematic Swedish operations. Talenom's interest-bearing debt is approximately 70 MEUR, which results in a high leverage ratio for the company. Furthermore, we believe that the share price remains high based on valuation multiples.