Translation: Original published in Finnish on 1/13/2026 at 8:09 am EET.

Sitowise announced on Monday that its CEO, Heikki Haasmaa, will leave his position during Q1 and that the search for his successor has begun. The company also changed its CFO last week when Sanna Sormaala took up her new position after being appointed in August. These changes in management do not alter our view. We adjusted our forecasts to include the 40 MEUR goodwill impairment in Sweden announced in December, which also had no impact on our view. We reiterate our Reduce recommendation and EUR 2.2 target price.

Sitowise announced change of CEO on Monday

The change in CEO did not come as a big surprise to us, considering Sitowise's lackluster earnings trend and falling share price in recent years. Although Haasmaa's term coincided with a challenging market cycle, the company also struggled with its own internal challenges in Sweden, where its business encountered serious problems. This resulted in a substantial goodwill impairment of around 40 MEUR at the end of 2025. The company's profitability has fallen significantly below target levels, and its debt ratio has risen to an elevated level. When a turnaround has been a long time coming, a change in leadership is a natural solution to restore confidence. The future CEO's key tasks will be to restore the company's profitability, revitalize its Swedish operations, and stabilize its balance sheet position. We will continue to monitor the progress of the recruitment process and any strategic decisions made under the new management.

Overall picture of operational forecasts unchanged

We have incorporated the previously announced 40 MEUR goodwill impairment in Sweden into our forecasts. This impairment is a one-time event and has no impact on the group's adjusted EBITA or cash flow, but it does significantly weigh on Q4’s reported operating result. At the end of last quarter, order books for Infra and Digital Solutions remained at a good level. However, order books remained low in the Buildings and Swedish business areas. We expect similar developments to have continued through the end of the year.

Overall, we forecast that Sitowise's revenue will decline by 3% in 2025 and that its adjusted EBITA margin will end up at 4.7%. Without sales growth, we believe it will be challenging for the company to improve its profitability, although the restructuring measures will provide some support. We expect a clearer recovery to occur only in the latter half of 2026 and in 2027, when growth will accelerate to 6-8%, thanks to increased construction and investment activity and reduced price competition.

In the longer term, we expect the operational leverage to support margin improvement towards an EBITA margin of 9%, though we do not predict the group as a whole will return to the company's targeted EBITA margin of 12%.

Clearer signs of a turnaround needed

The average of the 2025–2026 EV/EBITDA multiples (10x) is elevated. High net financial expenses will also significantly erode earnings (and cash flow) in the coming years, leading to even higher P/E ratios than this. Relative valuation also paints a similar picture of valuation. The DCF (EUR 2.4) is close to the share price. Meanwhile, the balance sheet-based P/B ratio rose to 1.2x (previously 0.8x) due to the goodwill impairment and does not provide any significant support for the share either.

However, it is clear that the company's earnings potential is significantly higher than the current level because the company is now operating at the bottom of the market cycle. Therefore, we believe that the 2027 valuation in particular (EV/EBITDA: 7x, P/E: 14x) better reflects Sitowise’s value. Earnings growth could accelerate quite rapidly if the demand outlook begins to recover. For the time being, however, we will continue to monitor developments from the sidelines and wait for concrete signs of an acceleration in earnings growth.