Talenom: Eventful week

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 12/19/2025 at 8:00 am EET.

We lower Talenom's recommendation to Accumulate (was Buy) and the target price to EUR 3.4 (was EUR 3.8). This week, Talenom issued a profit warning, published Easor's listing prospectus, acquired three small accounting firms in Spain, provided guidance for both businesses for next year, and organized an investor webcast. The overall analysis is still in progress, but the outlook for next year is not as strong as we previously estimated for either business. For Easor, this was also impacted by the Verifactu reform in Spain being postponed by one year. When the demerger occurs, the current group's forecasts will have little relevance, but our sum-of-the-parts calculation ultimately decreased significantly. 

Talenom's accounting business

Talenom estimates that 2026 revenue will be around 110-120 MEUR and comparable EBITDA around 18-22 MEUR. We now estimate "new Talenom's" 2026 revenue to be ~112 MEUR and EBITDA to be ~20 MEUR. We already stated in connection with the profit warning that forecasts were subject to downward pressure, and the guidance confirmed this. Profitability is depressed by relatively higher administrative costs and the company's increased sales and marketing investments, which aim to accelerate growth in the coming years. Both factors particularly impact Finland's profitability, which led to a clear reduction in our 2026 forecasts. Troubled Swedish operations should turn profitable next year, measured by EBITDA, and revenue should stabilize, with the company seeing positive signs in employee and customer satisfaction. The worst is over in Sweden, but a real turnaround is still yet to be seen. In Spain, Talenom only made three small acquisitions, which are expected to boost the country's revenue to around 21 MEUR next year. Spain has quickly become larger than Sweden, which has, of course, been helped by Sweden's weakness. Profitability in Spain will also improve significantly, and we forecast the EBITDA margin to approach 10% next year. The accounting business generates cash flow quite well.

Easor’s software business

Easor's revenue is guided to grow by 3-10% next year compared to the 2025 carve-out-based revenue, which we estimate to be slightly over 20 MEUR. One reason for this is likely the Verifactu law reform in Spain being postponed by one year to the beginning of 2026. Verifactu requires companies to use a digital invoicing system, which accelerates the Spanish software market and offers Easor a significant growth opportunity. Easor's EBIT margin was guided to decline due to the construction of distribution channels, other growth investments, and increasing administrative costs as a separate listed company. This was not surprising, but the combination of growth and profitability will be weak next year, which inevitably impacts the acceptable valuation in the short term. Growth investments are expected to accelerate growth with good efficiency, but the market will likely require evidence from the company before it starts pricing in profitable growth aggressively.

The sum-of-the-parts decreased significantly due to high financial leverage

Our sum-of-the-parts analysis now indicates a value of EUR 2.7-4.6 per share (average EUR 3.6), so negative changes almost entirely eroded the "safety margin" due to high financial leverage. We estimate the value of Talenom's accounting business to be EUR 1.7-2.9 per share and Easor's software business to be EUR 0.9-1.7 per share (separate analysis is expected in Q1'26). The distribution of debt between the companies also significantly impacted the values. The value of Sweden was already small, but Finland's weak earnings level next year significantly impacted its value. Positive developments only occurred in profitably growing Spain. The demerger clarifies the overall picture but also introduces a transitional phase in the story that requires patience. However, the market's patience may already be wearing thin.