* Q3 report due Tuesday 6 November
* Order intake to remain positive
* 13-9x '27e-'28e EV/EBIT
Q3 expectations
We expect order momentum to remain positive in Q3, albeit at a slower pace than in Q1 and Q2. We expect Cavotec deliver an order intake of EUR 38.1m (+5% y-o-y) for a book-to-bill of 1.01. The R12m book-to-bill should land at 1.18 in Q3 following the strong consecutive order figures in Q1 and Q2. The company has announced three orders in Q3, of which two are attributable to the Q3 order intake. All three came from existing customer relationships. We forecast sales of EUR 37.9m, up 5.9% y-o-y (o/w 3.9% organic and 2.0% FX). Industry should drive most of this growth, given its solid Q2 order intake and significantly shorter backlog lead times vs. P&M. We expect the company to return to an adj. EBIT growth in the quarter, landing at EUR 0.2m (+0.3m y-o-y). This corresponds to an adj. EBIT margin of 0.4%.
MoorMaster order raises '27e-'28e EBIT 5-4%
We raise our order estimates by 1% following the MoorMaster order for the Indian Port Authority, having already incorporated the shore power order from a global leading shipping company announced on July 15. This leads to 2-3% upgrades on '27e-'28e sales and 5-4% on EBIT. Minor changes to '26e are made following updated FX and slight adjustments to group costs.
Outlook and valuation
We recognise the potential of the exclusive distribution agreement with EVIAS, announced in September, for its automatic charging technology for port vehicles. This should broaden P&M's product portfolio and strengthen its position in port electrification. On reporting day, we look for more details on the agreement, in addition to the conversion of the record EUR 156m order book (end-Q2) and progress on the cost-savings programme. The share is currently trading at 13-9x '27e EV/EBIT vs. the peer median of 13-11x. The report is due on 6 November.