* We cut 2025e sales by SEK 21m, reflecting no machine deliveries * Rights issue of ~SEK 26.6m and working capital needs reduced * Market uncertainty persists, waiting for machine orders
Q4 expectations
We expect Q4 sales of SEK 16m (42m), with no announced orders in the quarter, implying R12m sales of SEK 49m (110m). The revenue contribution is expected to come from Coatings Services and Aftermarket. On EBIT we estimate SEK -10m (-4m). During the quarter Impact received its final outcome of its right issue, with total subscriptions amounting to ~SEK 26.6m, before costs. Although only 30.4% of the rights issue was subscribed to, the company announced that it had entered into a new metal supply agreement, which is expected to reduce working capital needs by up to SEK 30m.
Estimate changes and outlook
We lower '25e sales by SEK 21m, as no machine deliveries were made during the quarter. However, we raise our '26e-'27e sales by 5-4% due to increasing momentum in Coating Services. Impact Coatings expects to sell systems within all four of its application areas (Energy, Automotive, Electronics, and Luxury Goods), indicating System sales of SEK 80-100m in '26. However, due to continued market uncertainty, we remain cautious, and we expect two machine deliveries for '26e.
Waiting for System orders
While we find it positive that there has been positive momentum in Coating Services, we believe a recovery in System sales is necessary to mitigate the company’s long-term liquidity risk. The company is currently trading at 2.1x-1.8x '26e-'27e EV/sales.