* Organic decline of 2%, weighed down by Finland
* Adj. EBITA margin of 5.6%, below the 6.9% expected
* Trading at 6x adj. EV/EBITA on '27e
Changes in Finland will likely take time
The report came in softer than expected, with an organic decline of 2% continuing to weigh on growth. Most important here is adj. EBITA, which came in SEK 5m below our estimate, at a margin of 5.6% (vs. 6.9% expected). This was mainly due to weaker demand in Finland, driven by a customer that has made major layoffs, directly affecting Prevas. Postponed deliveries also weighed on the quarter, though we expect these to materialise as early as Q3. To address demand in Finland, the company took SEK 8m of restructuring costs, which we view as necessary to build a stronger foundation and improve margins.
Organic growth taking longer to turn around
We therefore lower our '26 sales estimate by 2% and adj. EBITA by 14%. Worth noting for consulting firms, organic growth is driven primarily by three things. 1) The calendar effect, i.e. working days compared to last year, 2) price increases and utilisation, and 3) whether FTEs are growing or decreasing. On price and utilisation, the company is able to raise prices despite competition and improve utilisation. FTEs are where it gets tough, as consulting firms have to lay off personnel to align with lower demand, which directly cuts organic growth through fewer billable hours. So what matters most here is the adj. EBITA margin, which we expect to gradually improve as changes take effect.
Increasing margins in focus
A return to positive organic growth will take longer than anticipated. Focus remains on restructuring to lift margins, with benefits expected to become more visible through H2. At current levels, Prevas is trading at 6x adj. EV/EBITA on '27e, well below its historical median and around 30% below peers.