* Q4 sales 20% higher than ABGSCe SEK 41m
* Lower gross margin likely due to higher share of partner revenues
* Likely slightly positive consensus estimate revisions
Q4'25 report
Skolon delivered net sales of SEK 50m (20% vs ABGSCe 41m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth of 76% (26pp vs ABGSCe 50%), higher than expected. The gross margin decreased to 26% (-5pp vs ABGSCe 31%), likely impacted a higher share of partner sales. EBITDA amounted to SEK -1m (1m vs ABGSCe -2m), ARPPU came in at SEK 191 (6% vs ABGSCe 180), and the number of paying users amounted to SEK 1,031k (-1% vs ABGSCe 1,044k).
Thoughts and outlook
The report was better than expected, and Skolon continues to grow strongly, with increasing traction internationally. ARPPU continues to improve, demonstrating the company's ability to upsell, notably through higher partner revenues (as indicated by the lower gross margin in the quarter). At the same time, Skolon has made investments across Europe, which are reflected in lower profitability. While these investments have a near-term impact on profitability, they are in line with the strategy, which we believe will strengthen the company’s long-term position.
Consensus estimate revisions and valuation
The share is down nearly 20% YTD and is trading at 7-5x '26e-'27e EV/Gross profit on our unrevised estimates. Following the report, we believe that consensus will raise sales estimates by low single-digits.