2025 has been a year of ups and downs for asset managers

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 12/29/2025 at 8:36 am EET.

The stock market year is drawing to a close, and after the Q3 season, we are starting to get a pretty good picture of how the year went for asset managers. In the big picture, the market situation has been very favorable for asset managers in 2025. Capital markets have shown a continuous upward trend, and spring's tariff turmoil was ultimately recovered from very quickly. Investors' risk appetite has grown throughout the year in Finland, whereas at the beginning of the year, sentiment was very cautious.

For asset managers on Nasdaq Helsinki, the trend has been mixed. The market situation has been very challenging for operators focusing on alternative investments, particularly real estate, as new sales have been sluggish and large redemptions have been a widespread problem for domestic real estate funds. Conversely, traditional asset management has continued to grow strongly, and players in this sector have also excelled in the stock market.

Upon examining changes in the earnings forecasts of the companies we monitor, it was found that earnings forecasts for 2025 have declined by an average of approximately 10%, with no change observed for 2026. The real estate sector is the common denominator in the decline in results for 2025. For most companies with declining earnings forecasts for 2025, the reason is the weaker-than-expected development of real estate funds. For a few companies, there are also one-off items.

Overall, asset management companies' performance on Nasdaq Helsinki in 2025 has been moderate at best, and the companies' average performance has been weaker than market sentiment would suggest. The explanation again lies with alternative products, especially real estate funds, which carry significant weight for Helsinki-based asset managers.

Huge differences in company development

Evli’s performance in 2025 has been very good, and the company is competing with Mandatum for the title of best-performing asset manager in 2025. The company's sales have performed very well throughout the year, especially in traditional asset management. After a longer break, the international sales that are strategically important to the company have also started to pick up very well. Performance fees have also risen to a strong level. In addition, our earnings estimates have increased throughout the year, and the company is heading into 2026 from an excellent position.

For eQ, 2025 has been a difficult year, and its earnings estimates have decreased over the course of the year. The downward revision of forecasts is due to larger-than-expected real estate fund redemptions, which the company still has outstanding. Sales in PE have also fallen short of expectations, though they have remained reasonable given the circumstances. The company will announce its new strategy in early 2026 with the aim of putting the company back on a growth trajectory. Next year will be a crucial one for the company, as new sales are expected to pick up, redemption pressure on real estate funds is expected to ease, and PE fund performance fees are expected to be realized.

Alexandria has had a moderately successful year. Sales of structured products are doing great, but new sales of funds have been slow. The company has taken clear steps to implement its new asset management model, and its development in H2 will largely determine the final rating for the year. However, the big picture clearly shows that the company is not maximizing its sales potential, so next year's focus should be on achieving this through asset management and fund sales. We note that the decline in the 2025 earnings forecasts is entirely attributable to the penalty payment imposed on the company by the Financial Supervisory Authority in H1, and adjusted for this, the earnings forecasts have changed only slightly.

The year 2025 has been really difficult for Titanium. The company has scaled up its new strategy, while Hoivarahasto's fees have plummeted due to the elimination of performance fees. The Hoivarahasto fund has also been forced to postpone redemptions, and at the time of writing, significant redemptions are still outstanding from the fund. The company has taken clear steps forward with its new strategy, most notably with the renewed management team, the launch of a PE fund, and a new asset management model. Next year, the company should further accelerate sales of its PE fund while proving that its current organization is capable of transforming from a product house into an asset manager.

For United Bankers, 2025 has been a reasonable year. Sales have been reasonably strong, particularly in H2, and the company has clearly strengthened its position in domestic asset management. However, weak sales of alternative funds have clearly hampered the entire company's growth. The result will decline significantly in 2025 due to the exceptionally high performance fees in the comparison period. In order to achieve faster growth than at present, the company also needs strong sales of alternative funds. The conditions for this should be favorable in 2026, especially if the company expands its range of alternative products.

For Taaleri, much of 2025 has been devoted to planning and implementing a new strategy. Sales of private equity funds have been subdued, and the SolarWind 3 fund ultimately fell short of the company's size targets, despite achieving a substantial size of over 500 MEUR in absolute terms. Garantia has had a good year considering the circumstances and, although growth has been limited, credit losses have remained moderate. During the latter part of the year, there have also been small, positive signs of progress in the company's new strategy, and the focus for 2026 will be accelerating its implementation. The most important factors are new product launches in private asset management and active investment activity on the company's own balance sheet (new investments and divestments).

CapMan has had a challenging year in terms of operations. New sales have been a struggle as customers have been more reluctant to invest in alternative funds than before. Organic growth here has been limited. The sluggish exit market has also hindered CapMan's own fund exits, resulting in very limited carried interest income. Regarding M&A, the company has stepped up its activity, completing two significant transactions (Midstar and CAERUS). In our preliminary opinion, these arrangements appear to be highly successful and have partly offset the lackluster operational development during the year.

Aktia’s comparable result has decreased significantly in 2025 due to falling market interest rates. However, the company has not been able to mitigate this impact through its asset management, where sales have turned out to be sluggish, as in previous years. Traditional asset management has generally performed well in the market, so we believe the company could have done better. On a positive note, the corporate loan portfolio has continued to grow significantly, as Aktia has focused particularly on installment, leasing, and invoice financing. Conversely, household loan demand has remained subdued due to the downtrend in the housing market and discretionary consumption.

Mandatum has seen robust growth, and thanks to solid new sales and positive value changes, the company's assets under management have grown significantly during the year. Additionally, Mandatum's wealth management cost efficiency has advanced considerably, causing asset management earnings to grow even faster than assets under management. Although our group-level earnings forecast has not increased due to changes in other income items (risk insurance and group expenses), 2025 has been a clear success for Mandatum.