Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/3/2026 at 8:20 am EET.

Kalmar hosted a Capital Markets Day (CMD) on Monday, and the recording can be viewed here. During the event, the company provided more information about the updated strategy announced last week and how it plans to achieve its new financial targets. In addition, it provided a more detailed breakdown of its markets and presented its service business and technology development. Based on the CMD, we have not made any changes to our estimates or our strongly positive view of the company.

Strategic focus shifts to accelerating growth

Kalmar announced its updated strategy and new financial targets already in conjunction with the Q3 report, and we commented on them fresh in our Q3 update. At the CMD, the company organized its strategic development into three phases. Before the listing, the focus was on portfolio width, from 2024 to 2026 it is on building the operational core and efficiency, and from 2027 to 2030 it will shift to accelerating growth. The strategic focus areas until 2030 are 1) investing in sustainable innovations, 2) accelerating services and customer lifetime value, and 3) driving growth. In our view, the main message of the day focused particularly on growth and the services-related opportunities identified by the company through the utilization of data, digitalization, and automation, among other things. We consider the strategic direction a natural next step in the company's development and, at the same time, a warranted one, given the sluggish growth in recent years, partly due to the market environment (revenue excl. heavy cranes +3% from 2024).

Market is growing, but there are significant differences between regions

During the day, the company also presented its updated estimate of the size of its total market, based on a KPMG market study. In the updated assessment, the company excluded light forklift trucks from the market size, a decision that we view as well-warranted, given that Kalmar's portfolio starts with a lifting capacity of at least 5 tons. With this update, the market size is estimated to be around 9 BEUR in 2025, with an estimated growth rate of 5.7% per year in 2025–2030. The equipment market (~3.8 BEUR) is estimated to grow by 7.2% and the service market (~5.1 BEUR) by 4.6% per year. This growth estimate is higher than KPMG's previous (2024) estimate, which can partly be explained by a change in market definition and the equipment market's moderate development in recent years. Based on actual figures, Kalmar's market share of equipment is approximately 30%, whereas in services, it is only around 12%. In our view, this reflects Kalmar's solid market position in the overall market, the growth potential of services, and the fact that the company still has work to do to fully capitalize on the service potential of its equipment base.

The company had revised its product-specific market positions only for terminal tractors ("1-2", prev. #1), as it is the market leader in North America but not in Europe. According to the company, its main competitors have remained largely unchanged, with competition coming from both Western and Chinese companies. Price competition was described as most intense in China and neighboring markets, so based on this assessment, we estimate Kalmar’s competitiveness in these markets is significantly weaker than in Western markets.

There are significant differences in growth rates by customer industry. The port and terminal market (62% of Kalmar’s 2025 revenue) is expected to grow 6.1% annually between 2025 and 2030, the distribution market (19% of revenue) 14.3%, the heavy logistics market (12% of revenue) 6%, and the manufacturing market (7% of revenue) 4.5%. In our view, the rapid growth in distribution largely reflects a recovery from a sluggish market. Overall, we believe that Kalmar is well-positioned in growth areas at the portfolio level, and the company has also identified clear opportunities in manufacturing, a sector in which it is underrepresented relative to the market.

Geographically, the largest and fastest-growing market is the Americas (3.6 BEUR, CAGR 2025–2030: 7.2%), with just under 2/3 of the market consisting of services. The EMEA market size is 2.8 BEUR (CAGR 4.8%), and the APAC market is 2.5 BEUR (CAGR 4.6%). Of these markets, the company’s focus is on the Americas, EMEA, and Oceania, which it prioritizes based specifically on the growth potential of its services, a decision we believe is justified. In Asia, on the other hand, it is striving to maintain its market position. Kalmar’s revenue is currently concentrated in the EMEA region (Q3'26 LTM: EMEA 53%, Americas 33%, APAC 14%), so we believe increasing its share of the Americas would be valuable, given the size, growth, and service-driven nature of the market.

Electrification remains a key trend, with automation also offering opportunities

According to the company, electrification is the fastest-growing market area. The fully electric market is estimated to grow from around 1.0 BEUR to 2.8 BEUR by 2030 (~23% p.a.), with services’ share of this growing from 0.3 to 0.8 BEUR. Growth is driven in particular by lower life-cycle costs, the need to reduce emissions, and regulation. In fully electric equipment, the company estimates that it is a global or EMEA regional leader in most of its product categories whereas it is still in the scale-up phase in terminal tractors. The company also sought to allay concerns about the impact of electrification on service needs: approximately 70% of equipment maintenance is unrelated to the power source, and service contracts are sold with electric machines about twice as often as with diesel machines.

Automation is also seen as offering clear opportunities, and among customer industries, progress is most advanced in ports and terminals. Automated container terminal capacity is estimated to grow by around 7% per year by 2030 (fully automated by 9%). The company commented that its market share of fully automated straddle carriers, for example, is nearly 100% but acknowledged that such a high share cannot be taken for granted as the market grows. According to the company, automation is gradually expanding from ports and terminals to distribution as well, and the company has autonomous terminal tractors in the prototype phase. Demand for automation, on the other hand, is driven by labor shortages, productivity needs, and safety concerns. Overall, we estimate that Kalmar is well-positioned for key technological trends.

Background assumptions for financial targets were clarified

The company also refined its roadmap for achieving its financial targets set for the end of 2030. The targets are:

• Revenue growth of over 8% per year over the cycle
• Comparable EBIT margin of 16%
• Return on capital employed, % (ROCE): over 25%
• Revenue from the services business 800 MEUR
• Additional gross efficiency improvements 50 MEUR

The growth target is supported by acquisitions, but the company did not disclose the split between organic and inorganic growth. In terms of equipment, the company seeks growth through fleet replacement and expansions, supported by a next-generation equipment range, electrification and automation, as well as under-penetrated geographical areas and segments. Additionally, the company anticipates a recovery in the distribution market that would support growth. In services, growth is supported by the installed base, data-driven solutions, and extending the equipment lifecycle. We believe the growth target is also supported by the weak cycle of recent years, which caused Equipment revenue to decrease by ~17% from the 2023 level. However, in our view, this recovery is already factored into the market forecast. Thus, organic growth in line with the market’s growth rate of approximately 6% would leave a gap of 2–3 percentage points short of the target, which would need to be made up through market share growth and/or acquisitions. Our current estimates (2027-2030e: 5-6% per year) are below the target and are based on organic growth. Considering the overall situation, we believe the company is well positioned to grow faster than the market, but longer-term market estimates always involve uncertainty, and the company itself has also estimated that the market is fairly stable in the short term. In light of this, we consider the target ambitious for the time being. We therefore estimate that achieving the target necessitates successful acquisitions and/or favorable market tailwinds at least in line with our forecasts.

Kalmar aims to expand its margin (Q3'26 LTM: 12.5%) by leveraging operational leverage from equipment volume growth, growing services, and implementing structural efficiency measures. In light of recent developments, we believe this goal can still be considered ambitious, and achieving it would require meeting the growth and efficiency targets. It is also worth noting that the company's margin has remained largely unchanged in recent years, despite the 54 MEUR in gross benefits generated by the previous Driving Excellence program (target: 50 MEUR), as these benefits have been used partly to compensate for tariffs and cost inflation, and also to invest in growth. Simultaneously, the company is simplifying its operating model by merging its two equipment divisions and establishing a separate services organization, which it projects will yield annual savings of 10 MEUR by the end of 2027. However, the current group-level and service-side growth targets suggest that the revenue structure is not poised to support margin expansion. Therefore, achieving this goal requires improved profitability in both segments. Our current forecast (2030e adj. EBIT-% 14.1%) is still well below the target level, and we will therefore wait for more concrete evidence of progress toward the target level before making any potential upward revisions to our longer-term forecasts. We consider the ROCE target (calculated without acquisitions) to be more realistic, however, as the company is already close to the target level (Q3'26 LTM: 22.4%).

Service target requires a clear acceleration in growth

Growing Services has already been a key strategic focus for the company. Roughly speaking, the target requires annual growth of ~7% from our current-year forecast (2026e: 609 MEUR). In our view, the average growth rate is quite ambitious compared to recent years (service orders 2024–Q3'26 LTM: +4%). This target also requires a growth rate that exceeds the services market average. Thus, we estimate that achieving the target will require quite good execution of the strategy (e.g., growing the servicing of the company's own equipment base and raising the spare parts capture rate, i.e., the share of the installed base's spare parts needs obtained, from ~30% in recent years) or acquisitions that grow the services business. Our current 2030 estimate (740 MEUR) is clearly below the target.

M&A strategy was slightly clarified, but expectations regarding the timeline were lowered

At the CMD, Kalmar also provided further details on its capital allocation priorities, which we had already commented on in our Q3 update. The main area of interest at the CMD was the targeted M&A added to the toolkit. According to the company, acquisition targets are sought in areas that reinforce its core business (e.g., services), in areas adjacent to its core business (e.g., new equipment niches), and through vertical integration (e.g., IP or technology). However, the company lowered expectations regarding the timeline significantly, as management stated that building a high-quality pipeline of acquisition targets takes time. Therefore, we expect any potential acquisitions to occur later in the strategic period. The company did not directly comment on the size of potential acquisitions at this stage, but we believe it is primarily looking at moderately sized targets. Within the limits of the new gearing target, however, the company theoretically has substantial firepower for capital allocation. In our view, given Kalmar's lower market share in services and, conversely, the inherently higher profitability of services, targets that strengthen the service business would be the most natural fit. Since the timing of acquisitions is uncertain and the balance sheet will likely remain overly strong for some time, we would consider a more generous dividend payout a reasonable interim measure as well. Given the current stock valuation, we also consider share buybacks to be quite justified.