Source: Inderes & Vara Research (7-8 estimates, consensus 10/26/2026)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/27/2026 at 8:20 am EET.

Kalmar will publish its Q3 report on Thursday, October 29, at around 9:00 am EET. We expect profitability to have declined from a strong comparison period. We expect order intake to have grown significantly, however, from a subdued comparison period. In the report, our focus will be particularly on the company’s market comments. We are also already looking ahead to the Capital Markets Day in early November.

Earnings expected to have declined from a strong comparison period

We expect Kalmar’s revenue to have been around the comparison period’s level, slightly below consensus. We expect fairly stable performance in both segments, reflecting the broadly stable order intake of recent quarters. We expect adjusted EBIT to have fallen to 56.9 MEUR, in line with consensus. We estimate that the margin fell from the strong comparison period to 13.1% (Q3'25: 13.8%). In our view, the comparison period margin was supported by an internal calculation error related to US tariffs, the correction of which weighed on the Services margin in Q4'25. Below EBIT, we expect financial expenses and taxes to have remained at normal levels, and reported EPS of EUR 0.66.

Order intake expected to have grown clearly from a weak comparison period

Our Q3 order intake forecast is 435 MEUR (+16% y/y), slightly above consensus (428 MEUR). The clear growth mainly reflects the subdued comparison period, and relative to recent quarters, we expect order trends to have remained fairly stable. We estimate that growth was driven by the Equipment segment, where the comparison period was particularly affected by the timing of larger orders. The company announced slightly more orders in Q3 than in the comparison period, although individual announcements should not be over-interpreted, given their timing and potential delays.

Reiteration of guidance expected, focus on Services development

In its 2026 guidance, Kalmar expects its comparable EBIT margin to exceed 12.5%, and we expect the company to reiterate this guidance in connection with the report. Our full-year margin estimate is currently 12.8% (vconsensus also at 12.8%). Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, we expect Kalmar to reiterate its view that overall market demand will remain at the level of previous quarters over the next six months.

In the report, we are also interested in more detailed market comments, particularly on the recovery of the North American spare parts market. We will also watch for any comments on the operating model simplification announced in September, through which the company targets annual cost savings of 10 MEUR. Although the company has said it will elaborate on the plan at its Capital Markets Day (CMD) on November 2, we will look for any additional detail on the specific measures and related one-off costs.

CMD to spotlight the route to the financial targets

We do not expect Kalmar to make any essential changes to its current financial targets in connection with the CMD, which are:

• Annual revenue growth of 5% over the cycle
• 15% comparable EBIT margin
• >25% ROCE.

This is because the company’s growth has fallen short of its target level in recent years, and it still has some way to go to reach its margin target. On the other hand, we believe the company could raise its return on capital target, for example to 30%, also in light of recent performance (Q2'26 LTM ROCE: 24.1%). Given the bigger picture, the means to achieve the growth and margin targets will be of particular interest at the CMD.

We will also continue to watch for any clarification of the company’s capital allocation. In our view, Kalmar’s capital efficiency is not currently optimal, as the company has said it is not pursuing significant inorganic growth under its current strategy. Meanwhile, its dividend policy is to distribute 30–50% of annual earnings. As a result, we expect the balance sheet to remain overly strong (Q2'26: net debt 13 MEUR, net debt/EBITDA 0.0x, gearing 2%), although it does provide a safety net against weaker economic cycles. In our view, the company’s leverage target (net debt/EBITDA <2x) is reasonable in itself. More broadly, we will be watching for potential strategic adjustments on inorganic growth. That said, acquisitions should not be an end in themselves to boost revenue if targets that fit the strategy are hard to find at a reasonable price. We therefore believe the company could improve its capital efficiency through more generous distributions to shareholders. Naturally, we will also be interested in the latest updates on the company’s long-term market expectations and how megatrends such as electrification and automation are advancing among its customers.