Kalmar Q4'25 preview: We expect a strong finish to the year

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/11/2026 at 8:40 am EET.

Source: Inderes & Vara Research (8 estimates, consensus)

Kalmar will publish its 2025 financial statements bulletin on Friday, February 13, and the company's earnings release can be followed here at 10:00 am EET. We expect Kalmar's order intake to have picked up significantly after a slower third quarter and for revenue to have been bolstered by major equipment deliveries that occurred at the end of the year. Key topics in the report include guidance for 2026 and detailed market commentary.

We anticipate that result gained support from deliveries that occurred late in the year

The company's order book stood at a higher level at the end of Q3 than in the comparison period (961 MEUR, +6% y/y). Thus, we estimate that the growth in the order book has supported revenue development, even though there is some timing uncertainty regarding larger deliveries. However, for the last quarter of 2025, we expect deliveries of large straddle carrier orders, among others, which were announced for the comparison period. We estimate these deliveries will boost Kalmar's 2025 revenue to nearly 11% growth in Q4. Our forecasts are somewhat above consensus (+5.5% y/y), with the difference coming from equipment revenue.

We expect Kalmar's adjusted EBIT to have been 63.7 MEUR in Q4, corresponding to a margin of 13.1%. Our margin forecast is in line with the consensus. We estimate that margin development relative to the comparison period was supported by revenue growth in both segments and progress on the Driving Excellence program. In connection with the program, the company had achieved annual gross savings of approximately 24 MEUR by the end of Q3, particularly through more efficient procurement. Our forecasts do not include one-off items for Q4. We estimate that the cost burden on the lower lines has remained at normal levels, and based on this, we predict that the reported earnings per share will have settled at EUR 0.74 (consensus EUR 0.69). We anticipate a dividend proposal of EUR 1.10 per share, corresponding to an approximate payout ratio of 43%. Our dividend estimate is slightly below consensus.

We predict orders to have picked up from Q3

During the pre-silent period call, the company described the market situation in Q4 as having remained stable. Based on this, we estimate that underlying demand has remained at a good level, although we assume there have still been geographical differences due to trade tensions and tariffs. Geographically, the company reiterated its previous message that the demand situation in Europe remains good. Reflecting the comments made in the company's Q3 results, we estimate that the demand situation in the Americas remained weaker compared to long-term levels, although it improved from a sluggish comparison period (e.g., destocking by distributors). According to Kalmar, it had observed a slight increase in connected equipment in the Americas at the very end of the quarter, but it was still too early to draw any major conclusions based on this. Therefore, we will wait for the latest comments from the American side when the result is announced.

We predict that Kalmar's Q4 order intake settled at 451 MEUR, which would mean a clear upturn from the previous quarter's subdued level (Q3’25: 375 MEUR). According to our estimates, order growth compared to the previous quarter will be supported by order announcements toward the end of the year and larger orders, of which there were exceptionally few in Q3. However, we expect orders to have decreased from the strong comparison period (-7% y/y), during which the company recorded several large straddle carrier orders. Our order forecast is in line with the consensus (451 MEUR).

Rising margin development expected for 2026

Kalmar only issued guidance on the adjusted EBIT margin for 2025 (above 12%). Before the pre-silent period call, the company had not yet made any final decisions regarding the form of guidance but considered it likely that they would continue along the current lines. In the report, the guidance and its format are what we're especially interested in. We currently forecast revenue of 1,789 MEUR for 2026 (consensus 1,785 MEUR) and an adjusted EBIT margin of 13.4% (consensus 13.6%). The guidance should therefore indicate an improving margin trend. However, Kalmar has been fairly cautious with its guidance thus far. For example, regarding 2025, the company commented that the guidance indicates more development at the floor level. We are also interested in the report's more detailed comments on the market outlook (including activity in connected equipment) and the progress of the Driving Excellence program.

A comprehensive report on Kalmar was recently published, which you can read here. In it, we also take a closer look at our forecasts for the coming years and the rationale behind them.