Following the sliding and underperforming share price we have updated our One-Pager which illustrates that the market currently implicitly discounts little value of the company’s pipeline in absolute terms.
Q1 was operationally in line with expectations, and we kept our forecasts unchanged in the big picture. However, the biggest news yesterday was that the Banking business will unexpectedly remain part of the group, which was disappointing. In 2024, we expect the company’s earnings to be at the level of the comparison period, due to a challenging market, but to grow moderately in the coming years.
In our view, the Q1 report landed on the positive side thanks to the earnings beat and cautiously positive market commentary. We revised our forecasts slightly upwards after the report, although some of the changes were technical.
Join Inderes community
Don't miss out - create an account and get all the possible benefits
Exel's Q1 figures were broadly below our expectations due to the timing of deliveries. However, on the day of the results, the spotlight was stolen by the company's planned rights offering of a significant size to strengthen its balance sheet and accelerate its strategy.
Neste's Q1 figures were well below our expectations, driven by Renewable Products. Given the trajectory of sustainable aviation fuel sales, this is not particularly dramatic as long as sales volumes start to rise as expected in the coming quarters. We believe the conditions are in place for this to happen, but evidence is needed to restore market confidence.
Q1 was weak as expected and the sluggish order intake did not improve the outlook for growth. The company's management seems to believe that growth will accelerate in H2 with the help of new customers, growing capacity and a new product portfolio.
Fiskars’ Q1 result was at the expected level, despite weakish revenue. The company reiterated its guidance, i.e. full-year EBIT is expected to be slightly above last year’s level.
The share price has recovered slightly and the first tranche of the dividend has been paid, which means that the upside potential has shrunk. At the same time, we have made negative revisions to the Q1 earnings forecast due to the Olkiluoto 3 problems and lower electricity prices, which has weakened the risk/reward of the stock.
In our view, the overall picture of Scanfil's Q1 report released on Wednesday was fairly neutral, despite a slight earnings miss, and we did not make any material changes to our forecasts for the coming years following the report.
In a challenging market, Innofactor continued to perform well in Q1 in terms of growth and profitability. However, new sales in this market are challenging and the order book has declined. We forecast moderate organic growth in the coming years and a slight improvement in profitability.
Puuilo's updated strategy targets stronger growth than previously expected and as a result we have revised our store opening forecasts upwards. The main drivers of the company's profit growth are a scalable cost structure driven by an expanding store network and the growth of existing stores.
Enento's Q1 operational key figures were in line with our forecasts. Guidance has still not been provided and, in particular, the visibility on the development of the Swedish consumer credit information market is still weak.
After a well in-line Q1 report, we emphasise that Inderes is showing progress in Sweden, although the steps remain rather small from a group perspective.
Read the latest SP Group One-pager update following the FY 2023 results. The One-pager includes a brief description of SP Group, an update to the moulded plastic market outlook, latest financials, valuation perspectives relative to a peer group, and outlines several key investment risks and key investment reasons.
Inderes delivered a Q1 report well in line with our estimates. Rounded off, sales were a notch higher than our estimate, while EBITA missed by tens of thousands of euros.
Betolar publishes its Q1 report next Tuesday at around 8:30 am EEST. Based on the CEO change announced yesterday and the change negotiations, we made significant cuts in our cost and revenue forecasts for the next few years. However, as a whole, we consider the releases (and the CFO leaving announced last week) to be a negative signal, as the outlook for the stock’s key value driver, i.e. revenue growth, is very unclear and weakened in the concrete product segment.
After last week’s Q1 2024 trading update, we have updated GreenMobility’s investment case one-pager with the recent development in valuation multiples. The one-pager highlights GreenMobility’s new strategic direction, focusing solely on the Danish markets and profitable growth. We also cover key investment reasons as well as key investment risks.