Fasadgruppen is a group focused on renovation and upgrading of facades, windows, roofs and balconies, with a particular focus on energy-efficient measures. The group consists of locally based companies with broad expertise in their niche. The main market is Sweden, but the group also has operations in the rest of the Nordic region and in the UK. Fasadgruppen was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Stockholm.
As we had expected, the start to the year was weak. While the weaker-than-expected Q1 report has led us to make some downward revisions to our short-term estimates, we believe the setback was primarily driven by unfavorable weather conditions rather than any structural weakening in underlying demand. As a result, our mid- to long-term estimates remain largely unchanged. In our view, the strong order backlog and the expected increase in project execution provide a solid foundation for earnings growth going forward, especially in the latter part of the year. Against this backdrop, combined with low medium-term valuation multiples (2026-2027 adj. EV/EBITA of 6–7x), we believe the risk/reward profile remains attractive. As a result, we reiterate our Buy recommendation and target price of SEK 26 per share.
Tamm has been a key figure in the company since before its IPO in 2020, and will remain as an advisor at least through the end of 2026 to ensure a smooth handover. We view this as a natural and orderly transition, and the internal appointment should ensure continuity in the finance function.
We expect a weak start to the year with notable year-over-year declines in both revenue and profitability, primarily driven by a lower opening order backlog, soft market conditions, and typical seasonal headwinds.
We initiate coverage on Fasadgruppen with a Buy recommendation and a target price of SEK 26 per share. Fasadgruppen's value creation model is based on owning and developing businesses while consolidating the fragmented market for exterior property work. The company has created a strong market position with well-established local brands that generate good cash flow, which is crucial for Fasadgruppen to continue executing on its acquisition strategy. The valuation has declined to a very low level following a period of weak market conditions and moderate performance. While the environment remains challenging and near-term performance is likely to stay subdued, we expect the business to recover in the latter part of the year and view the risk/reward as attractive at current valuations.
