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CapMan will report its Q4 on 2 February. We expect solid underlying performance, while a quiet transaction market could be visible in low carry and fair value changes. Fundraising was successful in 2022, but we expect a more challenging 2023.
CapMan continued its good performance in Q3 and results apart from carried interest corresponded to expectations. With some near-term softness seen in fundraising and transaction activity, we lower our TP to EUR 3.1 (3.4), BUY-rating remains intact.
CapMan reported Q3 EBIT of EUR 12.7m, 7% above Refinitiv consensus. Fair value changes remained strong thanks to successful exits, while carry was only EUR 1m in Q3. Fee income increased by 17% y/y, while management fees were up 4% y/y.
CapMan's net sales in Q3 amounted to EUR 15.9m, below our estimates and below consensus (EUR 19.7m/19.2m Evli/cons.). EBIT amounted to EUR 12.7m, below our estimates and in line with consensus (EUR 16.5m/12.3m Evli/cons.).
CapMan reported Q3 EBIT of 12.7m, 7% above Refinitiv consensus. Investment business EBIT was EUR 7.9m (fair value changes EUR +8.0m) in Q3 and came above Nordea estimate of EUR 4.0m (EUR +4.2m fair value changes).
CapMan somewhat ambitiously set its sights on doubling AUM over the next five years, but the CMD provided good insight into measures to achieve the target.
CapMan arranged a CMD event today with top management presenting new strategy with ambitious growth targets for the next five years.
CapMan released a new strategy and updated long-term financial objectives ahead of today’s CMD. Combined growth for the Management Company and Service businesses excluding carried interest target is raised to more than 15% p.a.
CapMan showed good progress across the board in Q2. The Services business is showing signs of bringing the growth pace up a notch and the overall expectations remain favourable. We retain our BUY-rating and TP of EUR 3.4.
CapMan reported Q2 EBIT of EUR 14.1m, 11% above Refinitiv consensus. Q2 was supported by strong fair value changes following completed exits and EUR 3.2m of carry. Fee income was up 25% y/y, while management fees were up 8% y/y.