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Osakeanalyysipalvelut, analyytikko
Analyytikko
CapMan’s Q1 results were quite weak on paper, but the operational performance remained at a rather good level. Despite uncertainties, the outlook in our view remains favourable.
CapMan's Q1 EBIT came in well below Refinitiv consensus expectations due to fair value changes, driven by FX, and the lack of carried interest. Given the weakening of the USD, we see a possibility for further negative fair value changes.
CapMan's net sales in Q1 amounted to EUR 15.1m, below our estimates and below consensus (EUR 16.9m/17.2m Evli/cons.).
CapMan reported Q1 EBIT of 0.5m, clearly below Refinitiv consensus. The deviation is partly explained by FX impacts on fair value changes and carry, while we note also soft Management company business profitability.
We maintain our estimates intact ahead of CapMan’s Q1 report due on 28 April.
CapMan’s operative performance in Q4 was quite decent with the big surprise being the divestment of JAY Solutions. The outlook for 2023 remains quite good and the investment case attractive despite some uncertainty.
CapMan reported Q4 adjusted EBIT of EUR 10.1m, in line with Refinitiv consensus. Fee income increased by 9% y/y in Q4, while management fees were down 1% y/y.
CapMan reported Q4 EBIT of 7.5m, 26% below Refinitiv consensus. However, the deviation is fully explained by EUR 2.6m write-down related to sale of JAY Solutions.
CapMan's net sales in Q4 amounted to EUR 19.7m, in line with our estimates and consensus (EUR 19.8m/18.9m Evli/cons.). EBIT amounted to EUR 7.5m adj. EBIT EUR 10.0m), below our consensus estimates (EUR 11.4m/9.6m Evli/cons.).
CapMan will report its Q4 on 2 February. We expect solid underlying performance, while a quiet transaction market could be visible in low carry and fair value changes. Fundraising was successful in 2022, but we expect a more challenging 2023.